Delhi Exit Polls: As voting for the Delhi Assembly elections concludes today, exit poll results will be released later in the day. Historical trends suggest that surveys have consistently failed to predict the extent of dominance by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, since its debut in 2013. The polls, despite offering some accurate results, have often underestimated the party’s remarkable performance, especially in the 2015 and 2020 elections, when AAP nearly swept Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats.

2013 Delhi Elections: A Missed Prediction

The 2013 elections were marked by a surge of new political energy, with AAP entering the fray. Exit polls conducted before the elections predicted a commanding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but the actual results were different. The average of four exit polls forecasted the BJP would secure 35 seats, just one short of a majority, while predicting AAP and Congress would finish with 17 seats each.

However, in reality, the BJP secured only 32 seats, the AAP garnered 28, and the Congress ended up with just 8 seats. The exit polls significantly underestimated the potential of AAP, which had built its base on the India Against Corruption movement. Following the election, AAP formed a short-lived government with outside support from Congress, but the resignation of Kejriwal after failing to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill led to a period of President’s Rule.

Out of the four exit polls analyzed, two predicted a clear majority for the BJP—Headlines Today-ORG estimated 41 seats and ABP-Neilsen predicted 37 seats. The poll that came closest to the actual outcome was Today’s Chanakya, which correctly predicted AAP would win 31 seats, the BJP 29, and Congress 10. On average, the exit polls were off by 11 seats for the AAP, while they overestimated the BJP and Congress by 3 and 9 seats, respectively.

2015 Elections: Exit Polls Underestimated AAP’s Sweep

By the time of the 2015 Delhi elections, AAP had already gained significant political momentum, and the exit polls once again failed to grasp the magnitude of its success. Six exit polls were conducted, and while all predicted an AAP victory, none were able to foresee the party’s landslide. The average of these polls estimated AAP would win 45 seats, while BJP was expected to secure 24 and Congress just 1.

In the actual results, AAP won 67 seats, a stunning victory, while BJP was reduced to just 3 seats. No exit poll in 2015 had predicted such a sweeping victory, and only one (Axis My India) came close by forecasting 53 seats for AAP. The lowest estimate for AAP, by India TV-CVoter, predicted just 39 seats.

As for BJP, exit polls had anticipated a higher tally for the party, with all but one survey placing BJP’s seat count above 20. Axis My India, however, predicted just 17 seats for the BJP. The Congress’s performance was also poorly predicted, with only two agencies—Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India—correctly forecasting that Congress would fail to win a single seat. The most optimistic prediction for Congress was just 4 seats, made by India Today-Cicero.

On average, exit polls underestimated AAP’s final tally by 22 seats, while overestimating BJP’s by 21 seats.

2020 Elections: A Significant Improvement in Exit Polls Accuracy

The 2020 Delhi elections saw improved accuracy in exit poll predictions. An average of eight exit polls predicted a decisive win for AAP with 54 seats, with the BJP projected to win 15 seats and Congress trailing behind with minimal representation. While the accuracy improved from five years earlier, the actual result was even more overwhelming for AAP, which won 62 seats, while BJP secured just 8.

India Today-Axis My India came closest to the actual results, forecasting AAP to win between 59 and 68 seats and BJP between 2 and 11 seats. Three polls, including India Today-Axis My India, ABP News-CVoter, and Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat, predicted that AAP would once again cross the 60-seat mark.

The lowest estimate for AAP, given by India TV-Ipsos Times Now-Ipsos polls, was 44 seats. These same polls were among the few to predict that BJP might win over 20 seats.

For Congress, the estimates ranged widely, with ABP News-CVoter predicting a maximum of 4 seats. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat and Patriotic Voter projected just 1 seat, while most other polls correctly predicted that Congress would not win any seats.

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