How Did The Exit Polls Fare Last Time Against Election Results In Haryana?

As voting concluded on October 5 for the Haryana assembly elections, attention shifted towards the exit polls, which pointed to a change in power. According to the exit polls, the BJP is on track to lose its grip on the state, with Congress gaining the upper hand. With official results set for October 8, the question arises: how accurate have exit polls been in past Haryana elections?

Exit polls are often used to gauge voter sentiment immediately after leaving polling booths. While these surveys can provide an early look at likely outcomes, they don’t always hit the mark. In Haryana, the 2014 exit polls were reasonably close in predicting the BJP’s victory. However, the 2019 exit polls painted a much different picture from the actual results.

Accuracy Of Exit Polls In The 2014 Haryana Election

The 2014 election marked a shift in Haryana’s political landscape, as the BJP ended Congress’s 10-year rule in the state. The exit polls that year predicted the BJP would win around 43 seats, just shy of the majority mark in the 90-seat Assembly. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was forecast to win 27 seats, while Congress was expected to secure 13 seats.

While these projections were close, the actual results saw the BJP winning 47 seats, crossing the majority threshold. Congress slightly outperformed predictions, securing 15 seats, while the INLD fell short with 19 seats, well below the 27 forecasted. Some exit polls were more accurate than others; News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen predicted that the BJP would reach a majority, while Times Now and India TV-CVoter were closest in estimating Congress’s seat tally.

The 2019 Haryana Election: A Different Story

In contrast, the exit polls for the 2019 Haryana election were far less accurate. Most predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP, with some polls forecasting the party would win more than 70 seats. However, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party securing a clear majority.

The average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP would win 61 seats, with Congress trailing at 18. In reality, the BJP secured just 40 seats, while Congress won 31. Pollsters had significantly overestimated the BJP’s strength by 21 seats and underestimated Congress’s tally by 13. Seven exit polls had predicted that the BJP would win a clear majority, while only India Today-Axis projected a close contest, forecasting 32-44 seats for the BJP and 30-42 for Congress. This prediction was the closest to the actual results.

Lessons From Previous Poll Results

While exit polls can provide an early indication of voter behavior, their accuracy in Haryana has been mixed. The 2014 predictions were reasonably close to the actual results, but the 2019 exit polls failed to capture the election’s complexity.

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