In a landmark moment for Indian aviation, the industry set a new record on November 17, 2024, by flying over 5 lakh domestic passengers in a single day. This achievement highlights the sector’s robust recovery and potential for growth despite recent challenges. A total of 5,05,412 passengers boarded flights across 3,173 domestic departures, setting an unprecedented milestone.
This historic achievement follows a steady rise in passenger traffic over the past two weeks, with figures nearing 5 lakh passengers on several occasions. On November 8, the industry recorded 4.9 lakh passengers, which rose incrementally to 4.96 lakh on November 9, 4.97 lakh on November 14, 4.99 lakh on November 15, and 4.98 lakh on November 16.
Changing Travel Trends: From Festivals to Weddings
The milestone comes after a relatively muted October leading up to the Diwali season. IndiGo, India’s largest airline, reported a quarterly loss just before Diwali, marking the end of seven consecutive profitable quarters. The airline cited the normalization of yields as a contributing factor, signaling a shift from high-yield bookings to more moderate demand.
However, the current surge suggests that post-Diwali travel, driven by the wedding season, has taken precedence over Diwali-centric travel. The shift highlights a growing trend where air travel demand aligns with social and festive occasions beyond traditional holiday periods.
High Demand, Limited Flights: Capacity Constraints Persist
While demand for air travel has reached new heights, the supply of flights remains relatively constrained. The average daily deployment of flights in November has hovered around 3,161, a marginal increase of just eight flights per day compared to October. This figure is notably lower than the deployment seen during peak Diwali travel periods.
The merger of Vistara with Air India on November 12 has momentarily boosted capacity on metro routes. The combined airline upgraded some flights to wide-body aircraft like Dreamliners, increasing the number of available seats without adding more flights.
However, other carriers, including Akasa Air and Air India Express, have faced delays in fleet expansion due to supply chain disruptions stemming from Boeing’s strike. SpiceJet has added a few flights after receiving funds and resolving disputes with lessors, but overall, the increase in daily flights since early 2024 has been less than 100—a clear indicator of capacity constraints.
Ticket Prices and Passenger Load: A Balancing Act
In the aftermath of Diwali, airlines launched promotional sales that spurred booking activity. However, as demand surged, so did ticket prices. This classic demand-supply dynamic has led to higher load factors—a key metric for airline profitability.
This uptick in fares and load factors is a much-needed reprieve for the aviation sector, which has faced significant financial stress. IndiGo’s recent losses and the broader industry’s struggles underscore the importance of sustained profitability.
Operational Challenges: Delays and Disruptions
While the passenger milestone is a significant achievement, the industry continues to grapple with operational hurdles. Congestion at major airports like Delhi and Mumbai has led to extended holding times before landing and delays in take-offs. These issues create a cascading effect, often resulting in missed connections and schedule disruptions.
Adding to the woes are frequent hoax calls in recent months, forcing flight diversions, security checks, and disruptions. These incidents have escalated operational costs as airlines work to rebook passengers and reposition aircraft and crew, ultimately passing these expenses onto consumers.
Aviation Growth Amid Economic Expansion
India’s aviation sector is growing steadily, albeit at a rate lower than its GDP growth, which ranges between 6% and 7.5%. Historically, aviation growth has been nearly double GDP growth, but constraints in infrastructure and capacity have limited its pace.
The government’s focus on expanding airport infrastructure is expected to alleviate some of these issues. The upcoming airports in Delhi and Mumbai, set to open next year, are likely to provide much-needed capacity relief and improve operational efficiency.
A Testament to Resilience
This record-breaking day is a reflection of the aviation sector’s resilience. From navigating the turbulence of the COVID-19 pandemic to adapting to new challenges, Indian aviation has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to recover and grow.
The sector’s recovery has been faster than anticipated by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), driven by the government’s efforts to modernize infrastructure and improve air connectivity.
Looking Ahead: The Path to 2025
The November 17 milestone serves as both a psychological and operational boost for the aviation industry. As India’s economy expands and its middle class grows, the demand for air travel is set to rise further.
With the wedding season fueling current demand and infrastructure developments on the horizon, the stage is set for Indian aviation to soar to new heights in 2025. Overcoming current challenges and maintaining profitability will be key to sustaining this upward trajectory.
