India’s demographic landscape is set for significant shifts in the coming decades, with projections from the United Nations highlighting a substantial growth trajectory. According to the latest biennial World Population Prospects (WPP) released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, India’s population is expected to surpass China’s by more than double by the year 2100.
Currently, India boasts a population of approximately 1.451 billion, slightly revised upwards from previous estimates due to the absence of a recent census. The country is projected to reach 1.61 billion by 2085, doubling China’s population of 806 million at that time. This demographic trend is anticipated to widen further, solidifying India’s position as the world’s most populous nation throughout the century.
The report underscores that India’s population growth is primarily driven by past momentum rather than an impending explosion, despite minor revisions in its projected figures. India’s fertility rate, which fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in 2020 and stands at 1.962 in 2024, indicates a shift towards stabilizing population dynamics.
By 2054, India’s population is forecasted to peak at around 1.692 billion, followed by a slight increase to 1.701 billion by 2061 before stabilizing. Comparatively, an aging China is expected to experience a significant decline in population size over the next 75 years, with its median age projected to increase to 60.7 years by 2100.
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The demographic dividend, characterized by a youthful working-age population, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for India. The report highlights that India’s working-age population will peak at 1.027 billion by 2049, necessitating strategic investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure to harness this potential effectively.
“In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend. To capitalize on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency,” the WPP report emphasizes. It further notes that countries must focus on enhancing job creation, improving living standards, and bolstering governmental efficiency to capitalize on demographic opportunities.
Globally, the report projects a peak world population of 10.29 billion by 2084, with subsequent revisions suggesting a slight reduction to 10.2 billion by 2100. Factors contributing to these projections include declining fertility rates in major nations like China and ongoing improvements in life expectancy worldwide. “high levels of child mortality persist in many regions even though such deaths are largely preventable. Nearly all deaths of children under age 5 (95% of the total) take place in 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan,” the report stated.
