Exit polls for the 2024 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections suggest a strong performance for the National Conference (NC) and Congress (INC) alliance, signaling a significant shift in the region’s political landscape. The three-phase elections, which took place across 90 constituencies, concluded on October 4, with results set to be declared on October 8. The polls predict a comfortable majority for the NC-INC alliance, potentially displacing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to struggle to reach double digits.
Exit Poll Numbers for NC-INC Alliance
The National Conference and Congress alliance is forecasted to emerge as the dominant force in the upcoming election, securing a majority of seats in the 90-member Jammu & Kashmir Assembly. According to the poll of polls, the NC-INC alliance is expected to win around 42 seats, crossing the halfway mark of 46. Multiple exit polls have presented similar projections:
- Dainik Bhaskar predicts 35-40 seats for the NC-INC alliance.
- Gulistan News estimates 31-36 seats for the coalition.
- People’s Pulse exit poll gives the alliance a clear majority with 46-50 seats.
- C Voter exit poll suggests 40-48 seats for the NC-INC alliance.
- Axis My India also projects a strong performance for the alliance, with 35-45 seats.
This broad consensus among exit polls points to a comfortable victory for the National Conference-Congress coalition, likely giving them the mandate to form the next government.
Overall Exit Poll Predictions
While the NC-INC alliance is expected to dominate, the BJP is projected to fall short of the majority mark in most polls. The BJP, which had a significant presence in the previous assembly, is now estimated to win between 23 and 34 seats. These numbers suggest a decline from its past performance, where it was the second-largest party in the assembly.
- Dainik Bhaskar predicts 20-25 seats for the BJP.
- Gulistan News gives the BJP 28-30 seats.
- People’s Pulse exit poll estimates 23-27 seats for the BJP.
- C Voter predicts 27-32 seats for the party.
- Axis My India forecasts 24-34 seats for the BJP.
Meanwhile, the PDP, which was a key player in the previous government, is expected to perform poorly. Most exit polls predict the party will win between 4 and 11 seats, marking a sharp decline from its previous standing.
- Dainik Bhaskar gives the PDP 4-7 seats.
- Gulistan News predicts 5-7 seats.
- People’s Pulse estimates 7-11 seats.
- C Voter suggests 6-12 seats for the PDP.
- Axis My India forecasts 4-6 seats for the party.
Other smaller parties and independents are likely to win between 8 and 23 seats across various constituencies, potentially holding the balance of power in case of a fractured mandate.
Previous 2014 Assembly Results
The last assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir took place in 2014, resulting in a hung assembly. The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, won 28 seats, making it the largest party, followed by the BJP with 25 seats. However, neither party secured a majority, leading to the formation of a coalition government between the PDP and the BJP. This alliance, however, was short-lived, collapsing in 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support.
The National Conference secured 15 seats in 2014, while Congress won 12 seats. Smaller parties and independents took the remaining seats. After the collapse of the coalition government in 2018, Jammu & Kashmir has been without an elected government.
In the previous election, exit polls had predicted a close contest between the PDP and the BJP. The CVoter exit poll, for instance, had projected 32-38 seats for the PDP and 27-33 seats for the BJP. However, neither party managed to achieve the predicted numbers, resulting in a coalition that governed the state for a few years.
Conclusion
The 2024 exit polls suggest that the political dynamics in Jammu & Kashmir have shifted, with the National Conference and Congress alliance poised to secure a clear majority. The poll of polls predicts the NC-INC alliance will win around 42 seats, marking a significant victory in the region. On the other hand, the BJP is expected to fall short, with predictions ranging from 23 to 34 seats, while the PDP’s influence has notably diminished.
As the results are set to be announced on October 8, these exit polls indicate a strong mandate for the NC-INC alliance, potentially paving the way for a new government in Jammu & Kashmir. If the predictions hold true, this could be a defining moment for the region, as it looks to establish political stability after years of uncertainty and political realignment.
