The Congress won emphatically in Karnataka in a crucial election, giving it momentum to take on the BJP in the assembly elections later this year and a boost to its preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The victory is significant for Congress because of the margin of victory and the consistency of its efforts. The Congress campaigned effectively around its “five guarantees,” attempting to keep the focus on local issues and the “failures” of the BJP government in the southern state. The Karnataka victory teaches the Congress several lessons for future battles, with “collective fight” and “strong state leadership” among the factors that aided the party.
The party won 136 seats, outperforming its previous results of 132 seats in the 1999 election and 122 seats in the 2013 elections. The Congress received 42.9% of the vote, which was among the highest in the state. It is also the highest vote share received by any party in the previous 34 years, reducing the BJP to 65 seats.
With the Opposition parties considering forming a united front against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress will seek to be a focal point of such efforts. The victory will also help Congress counter criticism that it consistently loses direct battles with the BJP.
The party won 136 seats, outperforming its previous results of 132 seats in the 1999 election and 122 seats in the 2013 elections. The Congress received 42.9% of the vote, which was among the highest in the state. It is also the highest vote share received by any party in the previous 34 years, reducing the BJP to 65 seats.
With the Opposition parties considering forming a united front against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress will seek to be a focal point of such efforts. The victory will also help Congress counter criticism that it consistently loses direct battles with the BJP.
In Karnataka, the BJP government faced anti-incumbency, and the ground was ripe for a Congress victory. The presence of strong state leaders such as former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar aided the party.
Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress president, is from Karnataka, so it was a prestige battle for him. He appears to have swayed voters, particularly a sizable number of Dalit voters, in favour of Congress.
The Congress also responded jibe for jibe to the BJP’s strong campaign, which was led by national leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.
In Himachal Pradesh, too, the Congress campaigned on local issues, with the promise of restoring the Old Pension Scheme proving a big draw. The people of Karnataka, according to Congress leaders, have rejected BJP leaders’ attempts to “polarise” the election. The BJP ran a high-pitched campaign, and the Congress’ mention of a possible ban on Bajrang Dal in its manifesto was widely publicised by BJP leaders via ‘Jai Bajrang Bali’ chants and slogans.
The Janata Dal-Secular suffered a heavy defeat in the polls, while the Congress appeared to benefit from a consolidation of Muslim votes and a shift in Vokkaliga community votes away from the regional party.
The BJP lost some Lingayat community votes after some senior leaders defected to the Congress ahead of the elections due to ticket denials. The Karnataka Congress leadership was a melting pot of ethnicities, including Kurba, Vokkaliga, and Dalits.
Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ helped Congress strengthen its connection with the people months before the elections. According to Randeep Surjewala, AICC in charge of Karnataka, the Congress won nearly 85% of the seats Gandhi visited during his yatra. Rahul Gandhi visited the state for more than 20 days in September and October of last year.
Karnataka has a long history with the Nehru-Gandhi family and has been considered a “comeback territory” in the past.
Indira Gandhi made a political comeback in a by-election in Chikmagalur, Karnataka, in 1978. Sonia Gandhi ran from Ballari in the state in her first election, in which she also ran from Amethi. The big challenge for Congress is the 2024 election, and the BJP has swept polls in states where Congress previously held power.
Following a string of defeats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, party leaders are hoping that the emphatic victory in Karnataka and the success in Himachal Pradesh earlier this year will pave the way for similar victories in state elections later this year. With the victory in Karnataka, the Congress party now controls four states.
