Maharashtra Exit Polls: Rebels and Independents Poised to Shape Government Formation

Exit polls for the Maharashtra Assembly elections indicate a closely contested battle between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Projections vary, with most polls predicting a neck-and-neck contest. For instance, ABP-Matrize estimates Mahayuti winning 150-170 seats and MVA securing 110-130 seats. Others, like People’s Pulse, predict a decisive edge for Mahayuti with 182 seats, while Bhaskar Reporters’ Poll suggests MVA may lead with 135-150 seats.

Key Role of Independents and Smaller Parties

Amid the uncertainty, Independents and candidates from smaller parties could play kingmaker. Nearly half of this election’s 4,136 candidates are contesting independently, and 50 key rebels from both alliances could disrupt their official candidates’ chances. Historically, Independents have grown in significance, with Maharashtra’s 1962 assembly elections seeing 15 Independents win. Their numbers have since increased, reflecting their crucial role in government formation.

Smaller parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, among others, are also in the fray. Their influence could be pivotal in tilting the balance of power.

Alliances Reach Out to Secure Support

Sources reveal that both alliances are already courting Independents and smaller party candidates to ensure majority support post-results. MVA leaders, including Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, are reportedly strategizing to address potential shortfalls. Pawar, known for his political acumen, is expected to lead negotiations if required.

Reports suggest at least a third of the state’s 288 constituencies have experienced rebellion, potentially altering electoral outcomes. With over 2,000 Independent candidates and several regional parties contesting, the electoral field has become increasingly fragmented.

Political Experts Weigh In

Analysts believe that both Independents and smaller parties are likely to play a decisive role in shaping Maharashtra’s political future. As alliances scramble to secure a majority, the eventual government’s stability may hinge on these players’ influence.

As counting day approaches on November 23, the suspense grows. Whether Mahayuti or MVA will form the next government—or if a new coalition will emerge—remains to be seen.