Maharashtra, Jharkhand Exit Polls: Key Dates And How To Access Predictions

Millions of voters head to polling stations today, as the political battle in the crucial states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand intensifies with the elections deciding the future of state leadership. The consequences for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its regional allies will be significant.

Maharashtra Election: It’s going to be a high-stakes showdown

The battle for Maharashtra’s 288 assembly seats is heating up. While the Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, is eyeing a turnaround to power, the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi has shown all the signs of a promising return. Voting starts early at 7 AM and will go on until 6 PM and will be out on November 23. There will be a total 9.7 crore voters at the end, deciding the fate of the 4,136 candidates.

The Mahayuti alliance has BJP fighting in 149 seats, Shiv Sena under Eknath Shinde with 81 candidates, and NCP with Ajit Pawar fielding 59 candidates. On the other side of the MVA camp, Congress has filed 101, Shiv Sena (UBT) has 95 candidates, and Sharad Pawar-led NCP has 86 in its candidate list. Minnows BSP and AIMIM have also thrown their hat into the ring for 237 and 17 seats respectively.

The Role of High-Profile Leaders

The campaign has included high-profile figures like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigning across the state, making their presence felt. The Mahayuti has taken its welfare programs to the people, ranging from the “Majhi Ladki Bahin” program, which provides a certain amount of financial support to women. Opposition parties have been quick to attack the BJP’s slogans, charging them with religious polarisation.

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar distanced himself from a few of these slogans, but the MVA itself harped on themes like social justice, caste-based census, and constitutional protection in its own campaign.

A Straight Puncture of the BJP and the Congress

The most critical aspect of this election may be the head-to-head contest between the BJP and Congress in 76 seats. The BJP is likely to emerge victorious in more than 50 seats, which are crucial for crossing the critical 150-seat mark in the 288-member assembly.

One of the key battlegrounds here remains Vidarbha, a region traditionally dominated by the BJP. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the MVA made significant gains here. The region, with its agricultural distress and issues like low soybean and cotton prices, is expected to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the elections. Promises of better support prices for farmers by Congress could resonate well with voters in this rural heartland.

The Influence of Welfare Schemes

Both alliances have been dangling cash transfers and other welfare schemes in the hope of reaching out to voters. The BJP-led Mahayuti has introduced the “Ladki Bahin” scheme, which directly provides Rs 1,500 to women, while the Congress-led MVA has promised Rs 3,000 for women. Other promises of hikes in financial support for farmers, youth, and elderly women will vote to banks these are aimed at plugging into the votes of voters in rural areas, particularly in distressed areas.

The Maratha Vote and Regional Dynamics

This election will focus more on the Maratha vote. Even while consolidating the OBC vote, the BJP still has to worry about MVA, which has been speaking much louder on the demands of Maratha reservation. Thus, it is bound to have a strong impact on the election and is supposed to play a significant role in this election because of its performance as MVA, which bettered Marathwada in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

But the ascendency of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde as a strong leader in the Maratha society could pose an obstacle to the MVA in consolidating the Maratha votes.

Jharkhand Elections: Close Contest

Polling is also going on in the second and final phase of the Jharkhand assembly elections. The voting exercise started from 7 AM in 14,218 booths across 12 districts and will go on till 5 PM. Over 1.23 crore voters, that is more than 60 lakh women and 147 third-gender electors, will have the last say in the fate of 528 candidates. Among them are prominent figures like Chief Minister Hemant Soren of the JMM, his wife Kalpana Soren, and BJP leader Amar Kumar Bauri, who is contesting for a seat in the assembly.

The ruling JMM-led INDIA alliance is trying to retain power, relying on its welfare schemes, while the BJP-led NDA is making a concerted push to wrest control of the state.

The Impact of National Political Trends

Both states are witnessing the impact of national political trends. In Maharashtra, the BJP is trying to emulate what it could do in Haryana, where it consolidated non-Jat and Hindu votes. On the other hand, the MVA is looking at the prospects of reaping from its performances in the 2024 general elections, in which it bagged the assembly segments of Maharashtra.

The political situation surrounding both states is very charged with stakes, and the voters are expected to base their decisions based on issues of development, local leadership, and welfare promises.

Exit Polls and What to Expect

Exit polls for Maharashtra and Jharkhand will be made available after 6:30 PM today by following the Election Commission’s guidelines. Top exit pollsters like People’s Pulse, Axis My India, C Voter, and Matrize are all likely to come out with their observations on the results, including likely majorities.

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