Low Pressure System In Bay Of Bengal Expected To Develop Into Cyclone

Chennai is bracing for a major weather disturbance, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of a well-marked low-pressure system that has already begun wreaking havoc across the city. Heavy rainfall lashed the Tamil Nadu capital last night and continued into this morning, submerging local infrastructure under a deluge of rainwater. Unfortunately, forecasts indicate that this is just the beginning, with potentially more severe conditions expected in the coming days.

The low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is anticipated to intensify into a depression within the next 48 to 72 hours. Meteorologists suggest that the storm may evolve into a powerful cyclone capable of impacting coastal areas, including Chennai. This intensification is fueled by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently in its active phase (phase 4), which is known to increase convective activity, potentially leading to rapid storm development.

According to the IMD, the cyclone is expected to move toward the coasts of North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and South Andhra Pradesh. The IMD’s Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts that this system could evolve into a severe cyclonic storm by Wednesday, October 16, and make landfall near Chennai on Thursday, October 17.

In response to this evolving threat, the Tamil Nadu state government has declared a holiday for schools and colleges in Chennai and the surrounding districts.

Conflicting Forecasts On Cyclone Intensity

While meteorologists generally agree that a storm is forming, there are conflicting predictions regarding its strength and trajectory. The Weather Channel indicates that the low-pressure area has been distinctly visible over the central-southern Bay of Bengal since Tuesday morning.

This system is projected to move west-northwestward towards the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts by Thursday. Most weather models anticipate that the system will develop into a depression but may not escalate to a full-fledged cyclonic storm.

However, the IMD GFS is particularly noteworthy, as it predicts rapid intensification into a severe cyclonic storm, possibly making landfall just south of Chennai on Thursday. Conversely, the European model, ECMWF, known for its accuracy in cyclone forecasting, suggests that the system may remain a low-pressure area as it crosses the coast, without further intensification.

Should the storm escalate to cyclone status, it would be designated “Cyclone Dana,” as proposed by Qatar under the World Meteorological Organization’s naming conventions.

Weather Alerts And Precautionary Measures

The brewing system is expected to bring widespread heavy rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh over the upcoming days. The IMD has issued a red warning, indicating immediate action is required, for these regions on October 16. An orange alert is in place for October 15 and 17.

Specific districts within Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, and Nagapattinam, are under a red warning, with extremely heavy rainfall anticipated on October 16. Winds are projected to reach speeds of 40-50 km/h, with gusts up to 60 km/h along the coast, prompting the IMD to advise fishermen to remain ashore due to worsening sea conditions.

Other potential impacts include localized flooding of roads, waterlogging, closure of underpasses, reduced visibility, and traffic disruptions, along with minor damage to unpaved roads. Coastal residents are urged to stay alert and take necessary precautions to protect their lives and property as the storm approaches.

MUST READ: ECI Announces Dates For Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Elections