One Nation One Election: The Electoral Math in Parliament

The Centre is set to introduce the One Nation One Election (ONOP) Bill in the Lok Sabha at noon on Tuesday, December 17. Ahead of the bill’s introduction, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has issued a three-line whip to all its MPs in the Lok Sabha.

On Monday, the Centre listed two bills for introduction by Union Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal in the Lower House on Tuesday: the ONOP Bill, formally titled The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-Ninth Amendment) Bill, 2024, and The Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill.

Support and Opposition

Out of the 47 political parties that provided feedback to the Kovind panel earlier this year, 32 expressed their support for simultaneous elections, while 15 parties opposed the idea. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), an ally of the NDA, did not submit an opinion but later conveyed its support for the proposal.

Among the 32 supporting parties, all were either allies or friendly toward the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has recently distanced itself from the BJP, shifting from its prior stance of support. Of the 15 opposing parties, five are outside the NDA but hold power in various states, including the Congress party.

Constitutional Amendments For One Nation One Election

Before the implementation of simultaneous elections, the Kovind panel recommended necessary constitutional amendments. These amendments would require approval from Parliament, and the creation of a unified electoral roll would need ratification by a majority of state legislatures.

Article 368(2) of the Indian Constitution outlines the process for amending the Constitution: “An amendment of this Constitution may be initiated only by the introduction of a Bill for the purpose in either House of Parliament… and when the Bill is passed in each House by a majority of the total membership… it shall be presented to the President who shall give his assent to the Bill…”

Majority Support Needed For One Nation One Election

Post the recent Lok Sabha elections, the 32 parties that supported simultaneous elections hold 271 seats in the Lok Sabha, including 240 from the BJP. This total is just one seat short of a simple majority. The NDA, including the TDP and other parties that did not express support or opposition, has 293 seats in the Lok Sabha.

For the proposal to pass, the government requires 362 votes, which represents a two-thirds majority, if all members are present and voting. With the NDA’s strength of 293, achieving this majority will require support from non-NDA parties. If fewer members are present on voting day, the NDA’s current strength could potentially meet the required two-thirds majority.

The success of the constitutional amendment in the Lok Sabha will depend on securing support from opposition parties, which poses a challenge. While the government holds an advantage in the Rajya Sabha, the numbers are still not comfortable enough to ensure smooth passage.

Opposition and INDIA Bloc’s Stand

The 15 parties that opposed simultaneous elections in the Kovind panel collectively represent 205 MPs. The INDIA bloc, which includes most of these parties, commands 203 seats in the Lok Sabha. If all parties in the INDIA bloc are united, they control 234 seats, potentially forming a formidable opposition to the proposal.

In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has 115 MPs, or 121 when including six nominated members, while the INDIA bloc controls 85 seats. For the constitutional amendment to pass in the Rajya Sabha, a two-thirds majority would require 164 votes, assuming all 234 members are present.

Breakdown of Party Stances

Among the 32 parties supporting simultaneous elections, the BJP and the Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party (NPP), a part of the NDA and in power in Meghalaya, are the only national parties. Other supporters include several BJP allies such as All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU), Apna Dal, and the Mizo National Front, along with smaller regional parties like JD(U) and Shiv Sena, both of which have returned to the NDA fold.

On the other hand, the 15 opposing parties include four national parties recognized by the Election Commission: Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and CPI(M). These parties, including Congress, AAP, DMK, and Trinamool Congress (TMC), are in power in various states. Other opponents are smaller regional parties such as AIUDF, AIMIM, and Samajwadi Party (SP). The BSP, which has seen a decline in its political presence, has since shifted to support the simultaneous elections.

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