PM-EAC Study: Hindus Decline By 8%, Muslims Increase By 43% In India between 1950-2015

According to a working paper from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), the percentage of Hindus in India’s population dropped significantly by 7.8% between 1950 and 2015, while the Muslim population witnessed a substantial increase of 43.15% during the same period. Similar declines in majority populations have been observed in Nepal and Myanmar. Conversely, 38 Islamic nations have experienced a rise in their Muslim populations.

The study reveals that aside from Parsis and Jains, all other religious minority groups in India, such as Christians, Buddhists, and Sikhs, witnessed an expansion in their population shares, reaching up to 6.58% during the specified period.

Decrease in Hindu Demographic Share within India

According to the EAC-PM study, the percentage of Hindus in India’s population declined from 84.68% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015, while the proportion of Muslims increased from 9.84% to 14.09% during the same period.

“In India, the share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent). The share of the Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 percent and increased to 14.09 percent in 2015 — a 43.15 percent increase in their share,” states the working paper, Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015), authored by Shamika Ravi, Apurv Kumar Mishra and Abraham Jose. 

Minority Population Growth Surges in India

During the period between 1950 and 2015, while the Hindu population in India experienced a decrease, the proportion of minority groups notably increased. The share of Christians rose from 2.24% in 1950 to 2.36% in 2015, marking a 5.38% increase. Similarly, the Sikh population saw an increase from 1.24% to 1.85%, representing a 6.58% rise. Even the Buddhist population’s share witnessed a significant upsurge, from 0.05% in 1950 to 0.81%.

Conversely, the share of Jains in India’s population declined from 0.45% in 1950 to 0.36% in 2015. Moreover, the Parsi population experienced a notable 85% decrease, plummeting from a 0.03% share in 1950 to 0.004% in 2015.

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“Contrary to the noise in several quarters, careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected, but indeed thriving in India. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighborhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan,” the authors say.

Surge in Muslim Majority Population in Pakistan and Bangladesh

The paper also sheds light on the global trend regarding the share of religious minorities and majorities across 167 countries over a span of 65 years. 

In contrast, the trend of population change differs slightly in Muslim-majority countries. According to the released report, the proportion of Muslims has increased in 38 Muslim-majority nations.  “On the Indian subcontinent, all the Muslim majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except the Maldives where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent,” it said.

In Bangladesh, there was a significant 18% increase in the share of the majority religious group, marking the largest such rise in the Indian subcontinent. Meanwhile, Pakistan experienced a 3.75% increase in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a notable 10% increase in the share of the total Muslim population, despite the partition and creation of Bangladesh in 1971.

In 1950, Muslims comprised 77.45% of the population in Pakistan. Currently, Muslims in the neighboring country constitute 80.36%. “Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 percent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 percent increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971,” it said.

During the same period, the Muslim population in Bangladesh has surged from 74.24% to 88.02% of the total population. Similarly, in Afghanistan, the Muslim population has risen from 88.75% to 89.01%. However, in the Maldives, there has been a slight decrease in the Muslim population, from 99.83% to 98.36%.

According to the report, the population of Buddhists in Myanmar has declined from 78.53% to 70.80%, while in Sri Lanka, it has increased from 64.28% to 67.65%. Meanwhile, in Bhutan, the Buddhist population has risen from 71.44% to 84.07%. Conversely, in Nepal, the Hindu population has decreased from 84.30% to 81.26%.

Decline in Majority Population Across 123 Nations

According to the paper, the share of the majority population has decreased in 123 countries globally, while it has increased in only 44 countries. The share of the majority religious denomination has decreased globally by approximately 22 percent. “On every major continent, more countries have seen a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination than an increase,” it says.

Referring to the global trends regarding the increase and decrease in the share of the majority religious population, the authors noted, “Our hypothesis is that the change in the proportion of the minority population as a share of the total population is a good proxy for the status of minorities in a country over time. A society which provides a congenial environment for the flourishing of minorities is more likely to witness an increase or stabilization in their numbers over a period of three generations.” 

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