The Six Factors That Decided The Delhi Election Result 2025

The Delhi Assembly Election 2025 witnessed a dramatic political shift as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured victory after nearly three decades, ending the decade-long reign of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The election was marked by significant developments, including the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, the resurgence of Congress, and an intense campaign by the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here are the six critical factors that determined the outcome of the Delhi Election 2025.

1. Anti-Incumbency Sentiment Against AAP

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), after a decade in power, faced growing public dissatisfaction. Criticisms centered on unmet promises and allegations of corruption, leading to a decline in voter confidence. The arrest of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal on graft charges further eroded the party’s image, contributing to its electoral decline.

The AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, faced a strong wave of anti-incumbency after ruling Delhi for ten years. Over the years, the party was credited with improving education, healthcare, and public utilities, but several issues tarnished its image:

• Corruption Allegations: The most damaging setback was the liquor policy scam that led to the arrests of AAP leaders, including Deputy CM Manish Sisodia and Arvind Kejriwal himself. The opposition effectively used this as a campaign tool to discredit AAP.
• Governance Fatigue: While AAP introduced welfare schemes like free electricity and water, many Delhiites felt that the government had lost its momentum in delivering fresh reforms.
• Infrastructural and Pollution Concerns: Issues like rising air pollution, water scarcity, and traffic congestion remained unresolved, further adding to voter dissatisfaction.

These factors resulted in AAP losing a significant portion of its voter base, especially among the middle-class and youth.

2. BJP’s Welfare Promises & Strong Campaigning

The BJP, despite being out of power in Delhi since 1998, rebranded its image and focused heavily on welfare-oriented promises to attract voters. The BJP’s strategic focus on welfare initiatives resonated with a broad spectrum of voters. Promises such as monthly payments to poor women, subsidized cooking gas, and pensions for the elderly addressed immediate economic concerns, enhancing the party’s appeal among the economically disadvantaged.

Some of the key promises that resonated with the electorate were:

• ₹2,000 per month for poor women to provide financial relief amid rising inflation.
• Free cooking gas cylinders under the Ujjwala Yojana, targeting lower-income families.
• Higher pensions for senior citizens to strengthen BJP’s appeal among elderly voters.
• Affordable housing schemes to woo the middle class and lower-income groups.

The BJP also launched an aggressive ground campaign, featuring rallies by PM Modi, Amit Shah, and state leaders, highlighting their “double-engine government” approach—suggesting that having the same party in both state and center ensures faster development.

This strategy significantly boosted BJP’s credibility among undecided and swing voters.

3. AAP’s Leadership Crisis After Kejriwal’s Arrest

The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal ahead of the elections left the AAP in a leadership vacuum. With Kejriwal unable to campaign or strategize, the party struggled to keep its voter base intact. The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal created a leadership void within AAP. His absence from active campaigning and governance weakened the party’s organizational strength and voter mobilization efforts, contributing to its electoral setbacks.

Key issues that weakened AAP’s campaign:

• Confusion Over Leadership: With no strong second-in-command after Manish Sisodia’s arrest, the party lacked an influential leader to replace Kejriwal during the elections.
• Legal Battle Overshadowed Campaigning: Instead of focusing on election issues, AAP had to defend itself legally, diverting attention away from policy promotion.
• Loss of Credibility: The BJP capitalized on Kejriwal’s arrest, framing it as a “corruption cleanup”, which hurt AAP’s image, especially among middle-class and first-time voters.

The lack of a clear leader and organizational instability played a huge role in AAP’s electoral downfall.

4. Congress’ Return & Division of Opposition Votes

For the first time in ten years, the Congress Party made a strong comeback in Delhi politics. Although the party did not win a significant number of seats, it split the anti-BJP vote, damaging AAP’s chances.

The BJP’s intensive campaign, led by prominent leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, effectively highlighted the party’s vision for Delhi’s development. The emphasis on a “double-engine” government, promising synergy between state and central administrations, appealed to voters seeking cohesive governance.

• Revival of Old Congress Supporters: The party gained traction among traditional Congress voters who were dissatisfied with both AAP and BJP.
• Muslim & Dalit Voters Shifted Back to Congress: These communities, which had largely supported AAP in previous elections, returned to Congress due to their long-standing allegiance to the party.
• AAP-Congress Alliance Breakdown: Unlike in other states where opposition unity was strong, the lack of a clear alliance between AAP and Congress led to vote fragmentation, helping the BJP win several closely contested seats.

5. BJP’s Strategic Use of Nationalism & Hindutva

Beyond welfare promises, the BJP strategically used nationalism and Hindutva-based rhetoric to consolidate its core voter base. The re-emergence of the Congress party, contesting independently, led to a split in the anti-BJP vote bank. This division diluted the opposition’s strength, inadvertently benefiting the BJP in closely contested constituencies.

• Article 370 & Ram Mandir: The BJP repeatedly reminded voters of its revocation of Article 370 and the construction of the Ram Mandir, appealing to Hindu nationalist sentiment.
• Targeting Shaheen Bagh Protests: The party revived its 2019-20 anti-CAA protest narrative, claiming that AAP was sympathetic to “anti-national forces.”
• Law & Order Promises: The BJP emphasized tackling crime, drug trade, and illegal encroachments, portraying itself as the party of governance stability.

These factors helped BJP consolidate the urban Hindu vote, particularly in middle-class and trader communities.

6. Voter Turnout & Demographic Shifts

The voter turnout in Delhi was around 60.54%, which was lower than previous elections. The election witnessed a voter turnout of approximately 60.54%. The BJP’s ability to mobilize its base effectively, coupled with a possible decline in AAP’s core voter enthusiasm, played a crucial role in determining the election outcome.

Key trends observed:

• Lower Youth Participation: The younger voter base, which had previously favored AAP, showed less enthusiasm this time. Many disillusioned voters chose not to vote, which hurt AAP’s overall numbers.
• Higher Turnout in BJP-Strong Areas: BJP successfully mobilized its core supporters in areas like East Delhi, Rohini, and Outer Delhi, leading to a higher voter turnout in these constituencies.
• Declining Support from the Poor: Many low-income voters who previously supported AAP due to free utilities felt that BJP’s new welfare schemes were more appealing.

The shifts in voter turnout and demography played a crucial role in shaping the final election outcome.

A Historic Shift in Delhi Politics

The 2025 Delhi election results mark a historic shift in the capital’s political landscape, as the BJP ended AAP’s decade-long dominance.

• AAP’s downfall was driven by corruption charges, leadership instability, and declining voter trust.
• The BJP’s victory was fueled by welfare schemes, nationalism and a well-executed campaign strategy.
• Congress’ resurgence further weakened AAP, leading to a fragmented opposition vote.

With the BJP returning to power in Delhi after 27 years, the political dynamics of the national capital are set to change significantly in the coming years.