Ever since the crushing defeat at the Maharashtra Assembly polls, rumblings inside the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) seem to have intensified. Already, sources said the MLC-cadre Shiv Sena — led by Uddhav Thackeray — faces more opposition from its own members asking him to break away from the alliance.
Sena MLAs Pressurize for Independence
Sources at a meeting on Monday reported that the majority of the 20 Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs requested Thackeray to re-evaluate the party’s stand in the MVA. After the mass defection of MLAs to Eknath Shinde’s faction in 2022, the influence of the party has been dented, and Sena leaders are wondering whether staying in the alliance is worth it. The Eknath Shinde-led Sena stands supreme in the state Assembly, raking up 57 seats, leaving the Sena (UBT) with merely a 20-seat representation.
Increasing Doubts Over MVA’s Success Story
Aaditya Thackeray, Sanjay Raut, and Uddhav Thackeray so far seem to stay hooked on to the idea of an opposition alliance that would offer some semblance of unified forces against the BJP, at least in theory, even though grassroots cadres in the party protest. “Many of our MLAs feel it is time for the Shiv Sena (UBT) to forge an independent path, contest elections on its own, and not depend on any alliance. The Shiv Sena was never meant to chase power… It (power) will come naturally when we remain steadfast in our ideology,” said Ambadas Danve, Leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra Legislative Council.
Sena (UBT) Faces Setbacks After Party Split
Since the split of the 2022 party, when Eknath Shinde managed to command a majority of the MLAs of the Shiv Sena, the Uddhav faction has been undergoing both internal and external challenges. The Sena (UBT) has been accused of losing its original ideology of the party, especially with its alignment with the Congress party. This is considered deviating from the traditional stand of the Sena about Hindutva and its regionalism.
The Electoral Fallout: A Major Defeat for MVA
The recent Maharashtra Assembly results have been a harsh blow to the MVA coalition. The alliance’s combined seat tally of 46 was far lower than the Shinde Sena’s 57 seats. Even more worrying for the Shiv Sena (UBT), it secured just 9.96% of the vote, a stark drop from the 16.72% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Sena (UBT) leadership is now weighing up whether a break from the MVA and an independent race would help it regain the connect with its core voter.
Hindutva Concerns Emerge Amid MVA Tensions
The Sena (UBT) is grappling with a shift in its ideological base. “The Sena has always promoted Marathi regionalism and Hindutva… The Congress and NCP have a more secular and socialist orientation,” said a defeated Sena (UBT) candidate. There’s a growing concern that the party’s collaboration with the Congress could dilute its Hindutva appeal, especially in light of the BJP’s success, which many attribute to the consolidation of Hindu votes.
Is the MVA a Losing Proposition for Shiv Sena (UBT)?
Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders are now questioning if the alliance with Congress and NCP still works. Party members feel that the narrative of the BJP of “pandering to Muslims” is picking up. “Securing Muslim votes is beneficial, but if those votes drive away other supporters, their value becomes questionable,” said a Sena (UBT) leader from Nashik Central.
Factionalism within MVA Grows More Apparent
As the MVA coalition continues to crack, a lack of unity has increasingly been pointed to by those within the Shiv Sena (UBT). The discontent among various quarters of the alliance stems from a row over seat-sharing arrangements as well as Congress’ decision to support independent candidates in constituencies held by the Sena (UBT). The Solapur South constituency is one of the several examples where Congress MP Praniti Shinde decided to back a rebel candidate instead of a Sena (UBT) nominee.
Contradictions at the Heart of the MVA Alliance
One of the essential problems with the MVA has been cited by a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader as the “natural incohesion of the alliance.” “It is an alliance formed to oppose the BJP and the Shinde Sena, but it’s not a naturally cohesive alliance,” this leader observed. This feeling of disconnection from within the alliance has led to increased angst among the leaders of the Sena (UBT).
MVA’s Troubled History and Uncertain Future
The MVA was formed back in 2019 when Shiv Sena pulled out of an alliance with BJP over a chief ministership issue and formed an alliance with the Congress and NCP. However, it all broke down in 2022, after Shinde’s rebellion, and now a fresh crisis has erupted in the MVA regarding its future, especially if Shiv Sena (UBT) breaks free from it.
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