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India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, a day after 26 people—including tourists—were killed in a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. Intelligence inputs suggest that of the seven attackers, four to five were from Pakistan.
The move is one of five punitive actions India has taken in response to the attack, underscoring a strategic shift in how New Delhi may handle terror emanating from across the border.
What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Signed on September 19, 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan. It was inked in Karachi by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Field Marshal Ayub Khan.
The treaty governs the use of six rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Under its provisions:
- India has unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—which total about 33 million acre feet (MAF) annually.
- Pakistan controls the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—which amount to 135 MAF annually.
The IWT allows India to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on western rivers, as long as it adheres to design and operational guidelines. Pakistan has the right to raise objections to these designs.
The treaty also established the Permanent Indus Commission, mandating annual meetings, held alternately in India and Pakistan. However, a planned meeting in New Delhi in March 2020 was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The treaty’s preamble emphasizes cooperation and goodwill, “The Government of India and the Government of Pakistan, being equally desirous of attaining the most complete and satisfactory utilisation of the waters… and recognising the need, therefore, of fixing and delimiting, in a spirit of goodwill and friendship…”
What Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Means for India
Suspending the treaty unlocks multiple options for India including:
- India can stop sharing river flow data with Pakistan.
- It can build storage structures on the western rivers.
- There will be no design restrictions imposed by treaty obligations.
- India can flush reservoirs, such as on the Kishanganga project, enhancing dam life and functionality.
What This Means for Pakistan
The fallout for Pakistan could be severe. The Indus system is not just a water resource—it’s the lifeline of the country’s economy and society:
- 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land (around 16 million hectares) depends on this water.
- 93% of the water is used for irrigation.
- The system supports over 237 million people, with 61% of them living in the Indus Basin.
- Cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Multan draw their drinking water directly from these rivers.
- The hydropower sector, through projects like Tarbela and Mangla, generates nearly 30% of Pakistan’s electricity.
Devastating Consequence for Pakistan
If India curtails the flow of water from the western rivers, experts warn of immediate and devastating consequences:
- Agricultural collapse: Staple crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton could suffer.
- Urban unrest: Water shortages in major cities could spark social instability.
- Power crisis: Hydropower output would plummet, causing blackouts up to 16 hours a day.
- Economic fallout: Industrial production in sectors like textiles, sugar, and rice milling would decline, hurting exports and widening Pakistan’s balance of payments deficit.
- Widespread hardship: The country could see loan defaults, job losses, and even rural migration.
Can India Legally Suspend the Treaty?
While the move is politically significant, the IWT does not contain a formal exit clause, meaning neither party can unilaterally withdraw from it.
However, the treaty does provide a dispute resolution mechanism under Article IX, along with Annexures F and G. These set out a three-tier process:
- Raise the issue at the Permanent Indus Commission.
- Escalate to a neutral expert.
- Approach a court of arbitration.
It’s notable that the Indus Waters Treaty has withstood the test of time—surviving three wars (1965, 1971, and Kargil) and multiple terror attacks. The suspension marks a dramatic departure from the past, signaling a tougher Indian stance on Pakistan-backed terrorism.
