According to an opinion poll conducted by NewsX, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to secure around 324 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, while the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A bloc is expected to fall short of the 100-seat mark. The survey indicates that the BJP is poised to once again dominate in key Hindi heartland states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh, and may also see improvements in its performance in southern states.
The overall seat share for the upcoming election, comprising a total of 543 seats, with the halfway mark set at 272, indicates a significant lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), projected to secure 383 seats. Among these, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is anticipated to clinch 324 seats, while the I.N.D.I.A bloc is expected to secure 109 seats. The remaining seats, totaling 51, are projected to be won by other parties.
In East India, the NDA is predicted to win 81 out of 118 seats, with the I.N.D.I.A bloc securing 8 seats, along with 9 seats for BJD and 20 for TMC. Finally, in South India, the NDA is projected to win 54 out of 130 seats, with the I.N.D.I.A bloc securing 58 seats, along with 7 seats for YSRCP and 11 seats for others. Overall, out of the total 543 seats, the NDA is expected to secure a significant lead with 383 seats, out of which 324 seats are projected for the BJP alone. The I.N.D.I.A bloc is predicted to secure 109 seats, while 51 seats are expected to go to others. The halfway mark for majority is set at 272 seats. Here’s a breakdown of the opinion polls region wise:
NORTH INDIA
In Jammu & Kashmir, out of the 5 total seats, the BJP is projected to win 2 seats, while the National Conference (NC) is expected to secure 3 seats. In Ladakh, with 1 seat in total, the BJP is predicted to win. Moving to Delhi, which has a total of 7 seats, the BJP is expected to win 6 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is projected to secure 1 seat. Uttar Pradesh, with a total of 80 seats, is expected to see the BJP winning a landslide with 73 seats, while the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal are predicted to secure 2 seats each, and the Samajwadi Party (SP) is projected to win 3 seats.
The Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are not expected to win any seats. In Madhya Pradesh, out of the 29 total seats, the BJP is projected to win 28 seats, with the Congress securing 1 seat. Chhattisgarh, with 11 seats in total, is expected to see the BJP winning 10 seats, while the Congress is projected to win 1 seat. Haryana, with 10 seats in total, is predicted to have the BJP winning 8 seats and the Congress securing 2 seats. Uttarakhand, with 5 seats in total, is expected to see a clean sweep by the BJP. In Punjab, out of the 13 total seats, the BJP is projected to win 4 seats, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is expected to secure 2 seats, AAP to win 2 seats, and the Congress to secure 5 seats. Lastly, in Himachal Pradesh, with 4 seats in total, the BJP is expected to win all 4 seats. This constitutes the projected seat distribution for North India, with a total of 161 seats.
NORTH EAST INDIA
In North East India, Arunachal Pradesh, with 2 total seats, is expected to see the BJP winning both seats, while the Congress is not projected to win any. Moving to Assam, which has 14 total seats, the BJP is predicted to win 9 seats, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) are expected to secure 2 and 1 seat respectively, while the Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) are projected to win 1 seat each.
In Manipur, with 2 total seats, the Congress is expected to win 1 seat, while the National People’s Party (NPF) is projected to secure 1 seat. Meghalaya, with 2 total seats, is expected to see the Congress winning 1 seat and the National People’s Party (NPP) securing 1 seat. Mizoram, with 1 total seat, is projected to see the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) winning the seat, with no seats expected for the BJP or Congress.
In Nagaland, with 1 total seat, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) is expected to win the seat, with no seats projected for the Congress. Sikkim, with 1 total seat, is expected to see the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) winning the seat, with no seats for the BJP or Congress. Lastly, in Tripura, which has 2 total seats, the BJP is expected to win both seats, while the Congress is not projected to win any. This constitutes the projected seat distribution for the North East India region, with a total of 25 seats.
WEST INDIA
In Rajasthan, with a total of 25 seats, the BJP is projected to win 23 seats, while the Congress is not expected to win any, and 2 seats are projected for others. Moving to Gujarat, which has 26 total seats, the BJP is expected to secure all 26 seats, with no seats projected for the Congress. In Goa, with 2 total seats, the BJP is projected to win both seats, while the Congress is not expected to win any. Similarly, in Daman & Dadra Nagar Haveli, with 2 total seats, the BJP is expected to win both seats, with no seats projected for the Congress.
In Lakshadweep, with 1 total seat, the BJP is not projected to win, while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar is expected to win 1 seat. In Maharashtra, with a total of 48 seats, the BJP is expected to win 16 seats, Shiv Sena to secure 7 seats, NCP to win 1 seat, Congress to secure 8 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) to win 9 seats, NCP (Sharad Pawar) to secure 5 seats, and 2 seats projected for others. This constitutes the projected seat distribution for the West India region, with a total of 104 seats.
EAST INDIA
In East India, Bihar, with a total of 40 seats, is projected to see the BJP winning 17 seats, JD(U) securing 11 seats, LJP winning 5 seats, HAM securing 1 seat, Congress winning 2 seats, RJD securing 3 seats, and 1 seat projected for others. Moving to Jharkhand, which has 14 total seats, the BJP is expected to win 12 seats, while the Congress is not projected to win any, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is expected to secure 1 seat, and 1 seat projected for others.
In Odisha, with 21 total seats, the BJP is projected to win 14 seats, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) securing 7 seats, and no seats projected for the Congress. Similarly, in West Bengal, which has 42 total seats, the BJP is expected to win 22 seats, Trinamool Congress (TMC) securing 19 seats, and 1 seat projected for the Congress. Lastly, in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with 1 total seat, the BJP is projected to win the seat, with no seats projected for the Congress. This constitutes the projected seat distribution for the East India region, with a total of 118 seats.
SOUTH INDIA
In South India, Kerala, with a total of 20 seats, is projected to see the BJP winning 2 seats, Congress securing 11 seats, Left Democratic Front (LDF) winning 4 seats, and United Democratic Front (UDF) securing 3 seats. Moving to Tamil Nadu, which has 39 total seats, the BJP is expected to win 4 seats, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) securing 22 seats, Congress winning 6 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) securing 3 seats, and 4 seats projected for others.
In Karnataka, with 28 total seats, the BJP is projected to win 22 seats, Congress securing 4 seats, and Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) winning 2 seats. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, which has 25 total seats, the BJP is expected to win 2 seats, Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) securing 7 seats, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) winning 14 seats, and Jana Sena Party (JSP) securing 2 seats. In Telangana, with 17 total seats, the Congress is projected to win 8 seats, BJP securing 5 seats, Bharatiya Rashtravadi Samanata Party (BRS) winning 3 seats, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) securing 1 seat. Lastly, in Puducherry, with 1 total seat, the BJP is projected to win the seat, with no seats projected for the Congress. This constitutes the projected seat distribution for the South India region, with a total of 130 seats.
