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Bihar’s political landscape has been shaped by a few towering figures over the decades, and among them, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar remains a pivotal force. With a political career spanning more than four decades and an ability to switch alliances strategically, Kumar has established himself as the ultimate kingmaker in Bihar’s electoral battleground. His influence is not only confined to his party, the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], but also extends to both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition’s INDIA bloc.
The recent Lok Sabha election results have once again emphasized his importance. Despite his frequent political shifts—from the Grand Alliance (GA) to the NDA and back—he remains a significant figure capable of tilting the balance in favor of either side. The fact that both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition are eager to keep him within their folds further underscores his relevance in Bihar’s triangular political setup.
Nitish Kumar’s Political Maneuvering and His Strategic Importance
Bihar’s electoral politics have traditionally revolved around three dominant forces: the BJP, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the JD(U). While the BJP commands a substantial Hindu vote bank and the RJD enjoys significant support among Muslims and Yadavs, the JD(U) plays a crucial balancing role. Nitish Kumar has mastered the art of navigating this complex political terrain, ensuring that neither the BJP nor the RJD can form a government without his support.
Political analysts argue that Kumar’s ability to remain indispensable stems from two key factors:
- A Pragmatic Political Approach – Unlike other leaders who stick rigidly to their ideological stance, Kumar has consistently adapted to the evolving political scenario. His willingness to ally with both the BJP and the RJD at different times demonstrates his flexible approach.
- A Strong Administrative Record – While his frequent political shifts have drawn criticism, his governance record has helped maintain his credibility. He is widely credited with improving Bihar’s infrastructure, boosting literacy rates, and implementing welfare schemes that benefit backward and marginalized communities.
The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: A Reality Check
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar have shown that despite Modi’s national appeal, Nitish Kumar remains a decisive factor in state politics. The BJP, which expected to win a comfortable majority on its own, realized that without JD(U)’s support, its electoral arithmetic would not work in Bihar. Simultaneously, the INDIA bloc, particularly the Congress and RJD, recognized their mistake in losing Kumar’s alliance ahead of the elections.
Nitish Kumar tried to touch feet of PM Modi
PM stopped him and shook hands.
While Journalists are spreading conspiracy theories. Nitish Kumar’s gesture confirms he is strongly supporting PM Modi 3.0 pic.twitter.com/M7T73PPDVF
— Ankur Singh (@iAnkurSingh) June 7, 2024
As a result, both political sides are now keen to keep Kumar on their side ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, where his influence will be even more significant.
Bihar’s Political History: The Kingmaker’s Role
Picture Credit: X Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav With Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav
Nitish Kumar’s first tenure as chief minister in 2000 lasted only seven days due to a lack of support in the Assembly. However, he made a strong comeback in 2005, forming a government with the BJP and ending the 15-year rule of the RJD. Since then, Kumar has remained a dominant force, despite facing several political challenges.
His journey has been marked by frequent shifts:
- 2013: He broke ties with the BJP over Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial candidacy.
- 2015: He joined hands with the RJD and Congress to form the Grand Alliance, defeating the BJP.
- 2017: He switched back to the NDA, citing corruption charges against his then deputy, Tejashwi Yadav.
- 2022: He left the NDA once again to rejoin the INDIA bloc, opposing the BJP.
- 2024: Just before the Lok Sabha elections, he re-aligned with the NDA, citing governance concerns.
These shifts highlight his ability to gauge the political climate and realign himself accordingly. Despite criticism for his flip-flops, Kumar continues to be the most sought-after leader in Bihar politics.
What Makes Nitish Kumar Crucial for the 2025 Bihar Elections?
With the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections approaching, Nitish Kumar’s role as a key player remains undisputed. The BJP, despite its growing support base, cannot afford to alienate him, while the RJD and Congress realize they need his support to counter the NDA effectively.
His political importance stems from the following factors:
- Core Voter Base: JD(U) commands a loyal voter base, particularly among Kurmis, Koeris, and other non-Yadav OBCs. These communities play a decisive role in Bihar elections.
- Administrative Credibility: Unlike the RJD, which struggles with its past image of misgovernance, and the BJP, which is often seen as an outsider in Bihar, Kumar enjoys credibility as an efficient administrator.
- Alliance Formation Capabilities: His ability to form alliances and shift loyalties strategically means that any party wishing to secure a majority in Bihar must consider his role seriously.
Nitish Kumar’s Political Heir: The Future of JD(U)
A significant development in Bihar’s political landscape is the possible entry of Nitish Kumar’s son, Nishant Kumar, into politics. Unlike Lalu Prasad Yadav, who groomed his son Tejashwi Yadav for leadership, Kumar has kept his family away from active politics. However, recent reports suggest that he may introduce Nishant as his political heir.
The JD(U) faces a leadership vacuum, and Nishant’s entry could energize the party’s core voter base. The BJP and the RJD are closely monitoring this development, as it could impact the political equations in Bihar significantly.
Whether he stays with the NDA or shifts his allegiance once more, Nitish Kumar’s role as the kingmaker of Bihar politics remains undisputed.
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