Initial trends from the Haryana assembly election results indicate that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is defying anti-incumbency sentiment and is on track to achieve a hat-trick victory. As the counting progresses, it appears that the saffron party is staging a remarkable comeback for a third consecutive term.
Strategic Change of Leadership
Facing strong anti-incumbency challenges, voter fatigue, and growing discontent among youth and farmers, the BJP made a significant decision to sever ties with its 2019 post-poll ally, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). This strategic shift involved appointing Nayab Singh Saini as the new chief minister, replacing the incumbent Manohar Lal Khattar.
The decision to break from the JJP on March 12 and select Saini, an OBC leader, as chief minister has proven to be a game-changer. Saini is the first OBC leader to take on this role in Haryana, which has a complex demographic makeup, including 30% Jats, 34% Backward Classes (BCs), 16% Dalits, and a mix of other communities. The BJP was concerned about the potential consolidation of Jats and Dalits in favor of the Congress party. By capitalizing on this situation, the BJP effectively consolidated non-Jat voter support.
In the days leading up to the elections, the Jats began vocally supporting the Congress, prompting the BJP to solidify its base among other communities. Additionally, the Saini government’s swift implementation of 126 decisions during his brief tenure helped bolster its standing with voters.
Focus on Backward Classes
During a Backward Classes Samman Sammelan in Mahendragarh on July 16, Union Home Minister Amit Shah emphasized the Haryana government’s initiative to increase the ceiling for the so-called creamy layer of OBCs from ₹6 lakh to ₹8 lakh. This focus on the BCs, who make up nearly a third of the state’s population, was pivotal. The Haryana government also announced an increase in reservations for Group-A and Group-B positions in local administrative bodies, raising the quota for BCs from 15% to 27%.
The Enduring Appeal of Brand Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s involvement in the campaign was another critical factor in the BJP’s strategy for the October 5 elections. Modi, along with Amit Shah, held 14 rallies in Haryana, where they reinforced the credibility of the Union government. The BJP highlighted its commitment to corruption-free governance and a series of pro-farmer initiatives that appealed to cultivators, who were previously divided between the Congress and the BJP. Notably, measures addressing concerns related to the Agniveer scheme helped sway opinions in favor of the BJP.
For many voters in Haryana, Brand Modi continues to resonate strongly.
Emphasis on Clean Governance
Despite a brief tenure, the Saini-led minority government implemented a range of populist policies to mitigate the anti-incumbency backlash stemming from two previous terms of the BJP. Several controversial decisions made by former CM Khattar were either reversed or adjusted to convey a message of course correction. The focus on merit-based recruitment for government jobs resonated with many young voters seeking opportunities.
Learning from the Lok Sabha Elections
The outcomes of the recent Lok Sabha elections served as a wake-up call for the BJP, despite the party winning five of the ten seats and leading in 44 assembly segments. The Congress had a strong showing, leading in 42 assembly seats, while its ally, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), secured leads in four segments. This was a notable shift from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP had won all ten seats in Haryana.
The disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections was a jolt for Saini, who had previously celebrated a significant victory in the 2019 assembly polls. The Lok Sabha results highlighted internal issues within the BJP, including factionalism and a disenchanted party base. In response, the government took corrective actions to address pressing public concerns, particularly regarding flagship schemes like the Parivar Pehchan Patra (PPP) and property IDs.
