As Haryana gears up for the legislative assembly elections on October 1, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a formidable challenge in retaining power in the state. The party, which has governed Haryana for two consecutive terms under Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, is now relying on a new leadership under Nayab Singh Saini. However, several factors threaten to undermine the BJP’s bid for a third term.
1. Anti-Incumbency: A Decade of Rule
After a decade in power, the BJP faces significant anti-incumbency sentiment in Haryana. The dissatisfaction with the current government was evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP’s vote share fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.10%. The opposition Congress, on the other hand, saw its vote share increase dramatically, from 28.51% in 2019 to 43.68% in 2024. This swing indicates a shift in voter sentiment that could prove detrimental to the BJP’s prospects in the assembly elections.
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2. Farmers’ Anger and Agrarian Issues
Haryana’s farmers have been a restless and unpredictable force, particularly in the wake of the controversial farm laws introduced by the central government. Although the laws were eventually scrapped, the farmers’ agitation left a lasting impact. The state’s agricultural community remains dissatisfied, particularly with issues related to the Meri Fasal Mera Byora (MFMB) web portal and the handling of procurement processes. While the BJP government has attempted to placate farmers with promises of timely MSP payments and crop damage compensation, the lingering resentment could sway the rural vote away from the party.
3. The Jat Vote: A Traditional Congress Stronghold
Jats, who constitute about 25% of Haryana’s population, have traditionally supported the Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Jat community overwhelmingly backed the Congress, contributing to the diminished vote shares of the JJP (0.87%) and INLD (1.74%). This consolidation of Jat votes behind the Congress poses a significant challenge to the BJP, which has historically relied on the polarization of the non-Jat electorate to secure victories in the state.
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4. Leadership and Internal Strife
The BJP’s decision to field Nayab Singh Saini as its new leader in Haryana is a strategic move aimed at garnering support from the state’s most backward communities. However, the transition in leadership could lead to internal discord within the party ranks, particularly among those loyal to Manohar Lal Khattar. Any signs of bickering or disunity within the party could weaken its electoral campaign, making it harder to rally voters under a cohesive banner.
5. The Congress Resurgence
The Congress party, buoyed by its strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is riding a wave of momentum heading into the assembly polls. Political analysts, such as Prof. Ashutosh Kumar from Panjab University, have noted that the Congress appears to be on a “strong wicket,” with the anti-incumbency factor, leadership issues, and farmers’ angst playing to its advantage. The Congress’s improved standing in the state could further erode the BJP’s support base, making it a formidable contender in the upcoming elections.
6. BJP’s National Advantage
Despite these challenges, the BJP still holds an advantage due to its connection with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and vote-catching abilities remain a crucial asset for the party. However, whether this national appeal can translate into a win at the state level remains to be seen.
Conclusion
The Haryana assembly elections are shaping up to be a tough battle for the BJP. With a decade of anti-incumbency, farmers’ discontent, the shifting Jat vote, and internal party dynamics all working against it, the BJP faces an uphill struggle to secure a third term in the state. While the party will undoubtedly leverage its national influence and leadership to its advantage, it will need to address these pressing issues if it hopes to emerge victorious in October.
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