Haryana Polls 2024: 6 Surprising Elections Where Exit Poll Predictions Failed

The voting for the 90 assembly seats in Haryana is scheduled to end at 6 PM today, October 5. As the final votes are cast, various agencies will prepare to release their exit poll predictions, offering insights into potential winners and expected margins of victory not just for Haryana but also for Jammu and Kashmir, where elections were conducted in three phases recently.

The results for both assembly elections will be unveiled on October 8, heightening the stakes for all participating parties.

Understanding Exit Poll Dynamics

Exit polls serve as a barometer of public opinion, gathering feedback from voters immediately after they leave polling booths. However, the accuracy of these polls has often come under scrutiny, leading to skepticism about their predictive power.

According to regulations set forth by the Election Commission of India (ECI), no exit poll results can be published during the voting process. They may only be released 30 minutes after polling concludes. Therefore, the earliest that exit poll data can be disseminated today is 6:30 PM, adhering to Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. This section explicitly states: “No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard.”

Historical Context: Exit Poll Inaccuracies

While exit polls can generate significant interest, their historical inaccuracy in predicting election outcomes has been notable. Below are six instances where exit poll predictions diverged sharply from actual results:

1. Lok Sabha Elections 2024

During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, at least 12 exit polls forecasted a substantial victory for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with predictions ranging from 361 to 401 seats. Yet, when the results were revealed, the BJP-led NDA secured only 293 seats, a stark contrast to the forecasted landslide.

2. Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2023

In a surprising twist, the BJP reclaimed control of Chhattisgarh from the Congress party in the 2023 assembly polls, winning 54 out of 90 seats, despite exit polls predicting a Congress victory.

3. Lok Sabha Elections 2019

In 2019, exit polls accurately predicted a return to power for the BJP-led NDA, which won 353 seats. Notably, India Today-Axis My India forecasted between 339 and 365 seats for the NDA, reflecting the polls’ consistency with actual results.

4. Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017

All exit polls suggested a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh, with BJP emerging as the largest party. Contrary to predictions, the BJP claimed an overwhelming 325 seats, enabling Yogi Adityanath to assume the chief ministership.

5. Bihar and Delhi Assembly Elections 2015

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls suggested a tight race, but the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance secured a decisive victory. Similarly, in Delhi, exit polls underestimated the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) success, with AAP winning 67 of the 70 seats.

6. Lok Sabha Elections 2014 and 2004

The 2014 elections saw exit polls predicting a win for the NDA but falling short of a majority, yet the NDA achieved 336 seats. Conversely, in 2004, all exit polls projected a comfortable victory for the NDA, which ultimately only won 187 seats, allowing the Congress to form the UPA-I government.