Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu on Saturday, October 19, reignited the discussion on the delimitation and population imbalance between northern and southern India by proposing incentives for families with more than two children. Since taking office in June, the TDP government has repealed the two-child policy that previously disqualified individuals with more than two children from participating in local body elections. Naidu has now promised to introduce a new law allowing only candidates with more than two children to contest these elections.
“We are considering providing incentives to families with more children to encourage population growth. We have already repealed the old law that restricted individuals with more than two children from running in local body elections, and we will soon introduce a law that requires candidates to have more than two children,” stated Naidu.
Challenges of declining population
This is not the first time Naidu has called for increased population growth in the state. In August, he expressed similar concerns, warning that Andhra Pradesh could face challenges if population numbers continue to decline. His main concern is the impact of delimitation, which will redistribute Lok Sabha seats based on the upcoming census. The Union government has not yet conducted the new census.
Data from the 2011 census indicates that population growth is higher in northern states, potentially resulting in greater parliamentary representation for the north compared to southern states, which could leave the south at a disadvantage.
Stalin echoes Naidu’s views
Naidu’s views have been echoed by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, who remarked at an event in Chennai on October 21, “With the possibility of losing Lok Sabha seats, we must question why we should limit family size. Why not aim for having more children?”
There is also a financial dimension to the issue. The Finance Commission determines the distribution of tax revenue among states, with those having larger populations receiving more funds from the Union government. For example, Uttar Pradesh recently received Rs 31,962 crore, surpassing the combined allocation of Rs 28,152 crore to the five southern states of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
Declining fertility rates in southern states
The Finance Commission’s tax-sharing formula has evolved over time. Until 2010, the 1971 census was used as the basis, but from 2015 onward, both the 1971 and 2011 census data were considered. The 15th Finance Commission now relies solely on the 2011 census, benefiting states with high population growth like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, while southern states with lower population growth receive a smaller share of tax revenue.
According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Andhra Pradesh’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.5% as of 2020. Other southern states, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Karnataka, have also seen declining fertility rates due to successful population control efforts. Tamil Nadu reported a fertility rate of 1.4%, followed by Kerala and Telangana at 1.5%, and Karnataka at 1.6%. The national fertility rate average is 2%.
These trends suggest that southern states will have a larger aging population in comparison to the northern states, leading to increased spending on pensions and welfare programs for the elderly.
What is delimitation?
Delimitation refers to the process of redrawing the boundaries of electoral constituencies to reflect changes in population. This ensures that representation in legislative bodies is proportionate to the population distribution across the country. The Delimitation Commission Act, first enacted in 1952, established the legal framework for this process, with commissions being set up in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. The first delimitation was conducted by the President in 1950-51, assisted by the Election Commission of India.
The most significant delimitation exercise, which restructured the allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha, took place in 1976, based on the 1971 census. The Indian Constitution mandates that the number of seats in the Lok Sabha should be proportional to each state’s population, ensuring that every citizen’s vote carries similar weight. However, this led to a potential issue where states with higher population growth rates could gain more parliamentary seats, disadvantaging those with lower growth rates. To prevent this imbalance, an amendment was passed during Indira Gandhi’s rule in 1976, suspending delimitation until 2001. A subsequent amendment extended this freeze until 2026, aiming to allow for a more uniform population growth rate across states before reconsidering seat distribution.
Delimitation and equal representation
Delimitation is necessary to ensure equal representation for equal population segments, prevent any political party from gaining an unfair advantage, and uphold the principle of “One Vote One Value.” Under Article 82, Parliament must pass a Delimitation Act after every census. Similarly, Article 170 requires states to be divided into territorial constituencies based on the latest census data.
The Delimitation Commission, appointed by the President of India, works closely with the Election Commission to execute this task. Its composition typically includes a retired Supreme Court judge, the Chief Election Commissioner, and the respective state election commissioners. The commission is responsible for determining the number and boundaries of constituencies to ensure population parity and identifying reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Tribes where applicable. Its decisions carry the force of law and cannot be challenged in court.
Delimitation and concerns of southern states
The delimitation process has raised concerns about its fairness, particularly for the Southern states. Since the 1990s, Southern states have made significant strides in economic development, surpassing their Northern counterparts in income levels and poverty reduction. The combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of states like Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu exceeds that of several Northern and Eastern states combined.
However, the existing distribution of parliamentary constituencies favors more populous Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. If delimitation proceeds as scheduled after 2026, Southern states might lose seats in favor of Northern states.
A 2019 study revealed that Bihar and Uttar Pradesh could gain up to 21 additional seats if delimitation occurs based on the 2031 Census, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala might lose 16 seats. This shift could also impact the distribution of seats reserved for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Additionally, Southern states risk losing funding, as the 15th Finance Commission used the 2011 Census for its recommendations, deviating from the earlier practice of using the 1971 Census as a base.
Delimitation and factors beyond population
Political analysts say that when delimitation eventually occurs after the next census, adjustments will be necessary to account for factors beyond population to ensure that southern states are not disproportionately affected. Some suggest that representation should not only reflect population numbers but also consider underrepresented groups due to social factors.
Reports over the years have mentioned that states with effective population control policies will not be penalized in terms of representation, and that the Union government will address these concerns when census data becomes available. The Delimitation Commission, which includes representatives from all political parties, will assess these issues and propose solutions.
However, states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, known for successfully implementing family planning programs, remain worried about losing parliamentary constituencies in the upcoming delimitation. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has voiced concerns about Tamil Nadu potentially losing seats if the delimitation is based strictly on population. During a debate on the Women’s Reservation Bill in the Lok Sabha, DMK MP Kanimozhi argued against linking the bill to delimitation, calling it a “sword hanging over South India’s head.”
Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Brinda Karat has also expressed concerns, noting that the 33% reservation for women in legislatures will take longer to implement due to census and delimitation requirements.
Concerns over federalism
From the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) perspective, delimitation could benefit northern states like Uttar Pradesh, which have larger populations and could gain more seats compared to southern states, where population growth has been slower.
Before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP distributed a document suggesting that northern India could gain over 32 seats after 2026, while southern states could lose 24.
Critics argue that focusing on population growth in the delimitation process could lead to an imbalance in the distribution of central funds, harming the federal structure and creating a north-south divide. CPI(M) politburo member M.A. Baby warned that this could silence southern states and endanger India’s federalism.
Read More: Chandrababu Naidu Advocates Larger Families To Combat Aging Population
