The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections concluded with significant political outcomes. The Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance secured a decisive victory, winning 52 out of the 90 seats in the region’s first elections since the abrogation of Article 370. The NC alone captured 39 seats, showcasing its strong influence in the Kashmir Valley. Congress managed to win 6 seats, consolidating the alliance’s dominance.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed well in the Jammu region, winning 27 seats, particularly in constituencies like Kathua (SC), Udhampur East, and Nagrota. Despite the BJP’s success in Jammu, they faced challenges in the Kashmir Valley.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had a relatively minor presence, winning 3 seats, including Pulwama, where Waheed ur Rehman Para emerged victorious. Additionally, seven independent candidates won seats across various constituencies, further diversifying the political landscape. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also made an entry, with Mehraj Malik winning the Doda seat in the Jammu region, marking a significant achievement for the party in this region.
Omar Abdullah, key leader of the NC, won in both the Ganderbal and Budgam constituencies, solidifying his party’s stronghold. Voter turnout stood at approximately 63.45%, reflecting substantial public engagement across the three phases of voting held in September and October.
No single party reached the half-way mark
These elections have resulted in a fragmented political landscape, with the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) emerging as the largest party, securing 42 seats out of a total of 90. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won 29 seats, while the Indian National Congress (CONG) and the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP) have managed to secure 6 and 3 seats, respectively. The “OTHERS” category, which likely includes independent candidates and smaller parties, has collectively won 10 seats.
The seat distribution indicates that no single party has reached the half-way mark of 46 seats required for a majority, suggesting that the JKNC may need to form alliances with other parties to form a government. The BJP, as the second-largest party, also has a significant presence in the assembly, but falls short of the majority mark. The CONG and JKPDP have a relatively smaller representation, but may still play a crucial role in the formation of the government.
BJP’s Lead- Slight advantage in the polls
The J&K polls can be seen to be a closely contested affair, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the largest party, securing 25.64% of the vote share. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) is a close second, with 23.43% of the vote share, indicating a strong presence in the state. The “Others” category, which likely includes independent candidates and smaller parties, has a significant share of 21.8%, suggesting that they may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the elections. The Indian National Congress (CONG) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) trail behind, with 11.97% and 8.87% of the vote share, respectively.
The BJP’s lead in the vote share suggests that the party may have a slight advantage in the elections, but the close margin between the BJP and JKNC indicates that the outcome is far from certain. The significant presence of “Others” also adds an element of unpredictability to the elections, as their votes could potentially swing the outcome in favor of either the BJP or JKNC.
Evident Regional Divide
The heat map of Jammu and Kashmir’s Assembly elections 2024 reveals a complex and competitive electoral landscape, with the National Conference (NC) emerging as the dominant force, securing 41 seats and leading in 1 constituency. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a close second, with 27 seats won and 2 leads, indicating a strong presence in the southeastern part of the region. The Indian National Congress (INC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have a relatively smaller presence, with 6 and 3 seats won, respectively, while the “Others” category, which likely includes independent candidates and smaller parties, has secured 10 seats.
There is a clear regional divide, with the NC dominating the central and northern parts of the region, while the BJP has a strong presence in the southeastern part. The INC and PDP have a limited presence, mostly in the western part of the region, while the “Others” category is scattered across the map. Overall, the heat map suggests that the NC and BJP are the two main players in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024, with the NC holding a slight advantage.
The regional distribution of party support highlights the complex and competitive nature of the electoral landscape in Jammu and Kashmir, with multiple parties vying for power and influence in the state.
