As Jammu and Kashmir prepares for crucial assembly elections, the region is set to experience a significant shift in monsoon weather patterns. After a notably dry season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted normal to above-normal rains for the Himalayan region, with exceptions in the extreme northern areas where rainfall may remain sparse. The uptick in rainfall is anticipated to align with the onset of the monsoon’s withdrawal, which typically begins around mid-September.
Elections and Weather: Timing and Impact
Voting for the highly anticipated assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir is scheduled to commence on September 18, coinciding with the period when the monsoon season traditionally begins its retreat. Despite the forecasted increase in rainfall, it is expected that the polling process will not be significantly disrupted. The elections are set to unfold in three phases: September 18, September 25, and October 1, with results to be counted on October 8.
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Regional Rainfall Patterns
The IMD’s forecast suggests that the Jammu region will likely experience a few heavy rain spells over the next two weeks, while the upper Kashmir Valley, which has seen a relatively dry monsoon, may not see substantial rainfall. Mukhtar Ahmed, a scientist from the MeT Centre Srinagar, indicated, “Usually, Jammu and Kashmir does not get enough rains in September as the monsoon begins to withdraw. But we are expecting 1-2 good spells over the next two weeks, especially over Jammu. However, there won’t be much rain in the upper Kashmir regions. Still overall, the monsoon rains may end as normal, or slightly on the higher side.”
Current Rainfall Deficit
This monsoon season has been marked by a notable deficit in rainfall, which has impacted local agriculture and water supplies. According to the IMD, the overall rainfall deficit in the Himalayan region has reached -23%. Areas such as Anantnag, Kulgam, and Srinagar have experienced significant shortfalls, with deficits reaching as high as -85% in Shopian and -78% in Poonch. The delayed and reduced snowfall during winter and the extended dry spell in July have exacerbated the situation, with temperatures rising to 35°C on several days.
Impact on Agriculture and Water Supply
The scarcity of rainfall has had a cascading effect on local agriculture and horticulture, while also disrupting drinking water supplies in several areas. The lack of sufficient monsoon rains has placed additional strain on the region’s already vulnerable water resources and crop yields.
Monsoon Withdrawal and Future Forecasts
Typically, the monsoon begins to retreat from Jammu and Kashmir between September 21-24. However, recent years have seen a delayed withdrawal, with the IMD predicting that this trend may continue. Dr. M Mohapatra, IMD chief, noted, “We are witnessing a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon over the years, especially over North-west India. This season too, we are expecting heavy rains over Gujarat and Rajasthan around September 15 so there could be a delay, but difficult to predict weeks in advance.”
