India has experienced its highest monsoon rainfall since 2020, with above-average precipitation recorded for three consecutive months, significantly aiding recovery from last year’s drought. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced this promising development on Monday, noting the crucial role of monsoon rains in the nation’s agricultural landscape.
Monsoon rains are vital for India, providing nearly 70% of the annual rainfall necessary for farming and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers. This seasonal rainfall, typically occurring from June to September, is essential for the nearly $3.5 trillion economy, particularly since about half of Indian farmland relies on these rains for irrigation.
From June through September this year, the total rainfall across the country was measured at 107.6% of the long-period average, marking the highest levels since 2020. Specifically, September saw rainfall exceeding the average by 11.6%, following above-average figures of 9% in July and 15.3% in August.
However, the beneficial rains have not come without challenges. The above-average precipitation in September, resulting from a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, has adversely affected some summer-sown crops, including rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses in various regions. Despite these setbacks, the rainfall is expected to improve soil moisture levels, which could be advantageous for planting winter-sown crops like wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas.
The year 2024 has been particularly critical for India following its driest year in five years in 2023, which severely depleted reservoir levels and impacted crop production. The situation forced the government in New Delhi to impose restrictions on exports of key commodities such as rice, sugar, and onions.
According to Ashwini Bansod, vice president of commodities research at Phillip Capital India, the overall distribution of rainfall this season has been favorable, allowing farmers to expand the areas cultivated for most crops. “This suggests we could see larger harvests of some summer-sown crops, potentially enabling the government to ease trade restrictions in specific instances,” she remarked.
In light of the promising crop conditions, India took steps to alleviate export restrictions, lifting curbs on the export of non-basmati white rice on Saturday. This decision followed a day after the government reduced the export duty on parboiled rice to 10%, spurred by the anticipation of a new crop and increased inventories in state warehouses.
Overall, the robust monsoon rains of 2024 present an optimistic outlook for India’s agricultural sector, paving the way for enhanced crop output and potentially stabilizing the market after a challenging previous year.
