In December 2024, a recently found asteroid called 2024 YR4 was the focus of attention for space agencies and experts globally. The space rock, with a dramatic 1.5% (1 in 67) possibility of colliding with Earth on a close flyby on December 22, 2032, has been dubbed the “city killer.” Its estimated 130 to 300 feet diameter puts it in a class that would be capable of catastrophic devastation to a whole city if it were to impact Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact path has been closely monitored, and a NASA simulation has revealed the path of the asteroid ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia. This path passes through key population hubs like Bogotá in Colombia, Lagos in Nigeria, and Mumbai in India. The ability of the asteroid to hit highly populated urban areas like Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, and others in South Asia has raised concerns.

Although the chances are slim, scientists fear that the effect could release destruction akin to the power of a hydrogen bomb. If the asteroid were to strike the planet, the effects would be apocalyptic, with the explosion potentially being equivalent to over 500 times the Hiroshima bomb’s power.

What’s Being Done to Track and Mitigate the Threat?

NASA, together with other international space agencies such as the China National Space Administration (CNSA), Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency (ESA), is actively tracking the asteroid’s path. NASA has already invested resources in narrowing down the asteroid’s size and trajectory, employing powerful telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope in the next few months.

Experts concur that although the likelihood of impact is low, it is important to monitor the asteroid closely. In March 2025, NASA will make a critical observation of the asteroid. This, combined with ongoing monitoring and analysis, will enable astronomers to forecast its behavior with increased accuracy.

How Scientists Could Stop the “City Killer”

Although there is little chance of a calamitous collision, scientists estimate that humanity has the ability to fend off any space danger. Various techniques are being explored to deflect or destroy the asteroid if its path becomes more menacing:

  1. DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test): NASA has already shown the viability of this planetary defense tactic by intentionally crashing a spacecraft into the Dimorphos asteroid in 2022, effectively changing its orbit. If asteroid 2024 YR4’s trajectory requires correction, several spacecraft may be dispatched to alter its course.
  2. Gravity Tractor:  Another idea is to use the gravitational attraction of a spacecraft to slowly nudge the asteroid off course without physically touching it. This would take a lot of time to implement but is a subtle and non-destructive way of diverting an asteroid’s path.
  3. Ions and Spray Painting:  Some researchers advocate using spacecraft to release ion streams that gradually alter the course of the asteroid. A less traditional method is spraying one side of the asteroid with a reflective cover that makes it turn gradually as a result of the heat from the sun.
  4. Nuclear Detonation: As a last resort, the detonation of a nuclear explosion might be used to annihilate or deflect the asteroid. This is risky, though, with the risk of breaking up the asteroid into smaller fragments that would still strike Earth.
  5. Laser Beams: While not a primary defense, researchers are also exploring the possibility of using lasers to vaporize part of an asteroid, thereby altering its course without causing a large-scale explosion.

The Possibility of a Close Call

Although experts maintain that the chances of a direct hit are extremely slim, the results of a near miss would be apocalyptic. European Space Agency’s Richard Moissl estimates that the asteroid may vaporize when it hits Earth’s atmosphere, unleashing the energy of eight megatons of TNT, a force more than 500 times the size of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

In the improbable circumstance that the trajectory of the asteroid gets altered and it poses a threat, specialists claim that there is sufficient time (approximately seven and a half years) for world preparation. Governments, space agencies, and specialists would collaborate to develop evacuation plans, prepare defense measures, and track the movements of the asteroid closely.

Although the danger of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is low (with a mere 3.1% chance as per recent NASA reports), the possibility of destruction has raised global consciousness. If the asteroid were to hit a city like Mumbai or Kolkata, the effects would be catastrophic. But the silver lining is that humanity possesses the means to protect itself against such dangers.

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