Can India Qualify For The WTC Final? What Happens If They Lose Or Draw Against Australia In Brisbane

India’s hope of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final is hanging in the balance as they are now facing a tough situation in the third Test against Australia at the Gabba. As the match entered Day 3, India’s WTC hopes are now at stake. After a fast bowling display by Australia, India’s top-order was rocked, leaving them at 51 for 4 at stumps. A follow-on seems inevitable unless India manages to avoid being dismissed for less than 246 runs.

The prospects of a draw have now emerged with rain continuing to play its part, but either result—a loss or a draw—could well have serious implications for India’s ambitions to make the WTC final. The potential outcomes for India and what it means for their qualification have been discussed in this article.

India’s Must-Win Situation

Coming into the third Test in Brisbane with huge expectations to gain entry to the WTC final, India is at its precipice. The momentum seemed right after the 295-run triumph over the visitors in Perth’s first Test, but an Ashes defeat followed by the South African whitewash over Sri Lanka pushed India into third position in the points table.

With the balance of the current Test match precariously poised, India is in a must-win situation. If it loses or even draws, India’s chances of reaching the WTC final would be significantly diminished. Let’s explore the potential consequences of each result.

What If India Loses?

If India loses the third Test in Brisbane, they would be significantly behind the target in their qualification for the WTC final. Another defeat after that would see India’s slide down the points table continue. Even if India comes back from behind and wins the last two matches at Melbourne and Sydney, their best possible points total would be 58.8%.

However, Australia, at this stage, second in line with 60.5% will still stand an opportunity to go through, all things being equal, by whitewashing Sri Lanka at home. This means that even a 3-2 series win of India would not get it to the final. The Asian giants will need a lot of help from other teams; Sri Lanka has to stun Australia, and Pakistan has to pull off a victory over South Africa in their respective series.

If Sri Lanka can manage at least a draw in their series with Australia, then the chances of qualification for India would rise as Australia’s percentage would go below 57%, and India would move ahead.

What If the Series Goes Into Draw?

With rain continuing to disrupt the play in Brisbane, India’s best bet might just be to salvage a draw. However, even this result would not provide much of a breather. A draw would mean India would have to win both their remaining matches at Melbourne and Sydney.

If India wins those two matches and the series ends 2-2, India would still require Sri Lanka to do something remarkable. Sri Lanka has to beat Australia 1-0 in their series for India to have a chance of making it to the final. In this case, India’s percentage would go up to 55.3%, and Australia would remain at 53.5%, and India would sneak into the final.

With the weather still playing havoc with the third Test, India is not off to a great start in Brisbane. Their qualification for the WTC final is far from being in the bag. They can lose and draw but would then have to rely on other results going their way. India must win the remaining two Tests and hope that Sri Lanka and Pakistan can cause upsets to see them through to the final.

For now, India’s WTC hopes hang by a thread, and only time will tell if they can pull off a miracle and make it to the final for the third consecutive time.

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