The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its projections for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, indicating a likely arrival around May 31, with a possible variation of ± 4 days. This forecast serves as a crucial milestone for the progression of the monsoon across the country, offering relief from soaring summer temperatures as it advances northward.
Traditionally, the southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of approximately 7 days. Subsequently, it moves northwards, typically in surges, and covers the entire nation around July 15. However, according to IMD’s latest projections, this year’s onset over Kerala is anticipated to occur slightly earlier, around May 31, with a model error margin of ± 4 days.
IMD’s advanced statistical model incorporates six key predictors to forecast the onset date, including minimum temperatures over Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall patterns over the southern peninsula, and various atmospheric parameters over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean. Over the past 19 years, IMD’s operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala have been largely accurate, except for 2015.
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In addition to monsoon forecasts, IMD has also issued warnings of a fresh wave of intense heatwave conditions expected to sweep over Northwest and East India from May 16 onwards. The heatwave is anticipated to escalate over several states in Northwest India, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, south Haryana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Furthermore, East Rajasthan, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh are also projected to experience severe heatwave conditions during this period.
According to IMD’s release, isolated pockets of heatwave conditions are expected over the Gujarat Region from May 15 to 17, Konkan on May 15 and 16, and Saurashtra & Kutch on May 16 and 17. Additionally, Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha are likely to witness heatwave conditions on May 18 and 19, 2024.
Moreover, hot and humid weather conditions are forecasted to prevail over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Bihar on May 15 and 16.
As India braces for the arrival of the southwest monsoon and prepares to combat the challenges posed by intense heatwaves, IMD’s timely forecasts and warnings play a crucial role in aiding preparedness and mitigation efforts across the affected regions.
