Exit Poll 2024: BJP Wave Expected Across North India, Projected To Secure 148 Seats

The Lok Sabha elections are nearing their conclusion, with 543 of total seats already contested. As the final phase on June 1 approaches, data indicates a significant reduction in the gap of voter turnout between the initial phases, potentially resulting in a turnout slightly below the 2019 levels. Out of the 543 seats polled so far, the BJP holds the incumbency on (315 ) seats.

On June 1, the seventh and last phase of the general election witnesses voting across 57 constituencies spanning seven States and the Union Territory of Chandigarh. Notably, Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is vying for a third consecutive term in the Lok Sabha, is among the key areas where polling is taking place. Citizens are actively participating in the electoral process by visiting polling stations to cast their votes and elect representatives in Punjab (13), Uttar Pradesh (13), West Bengal (9), Bihar (8), Odisha (6), Himachal Pradesh (4), Jharkhand (3), and Chandigarh (1).

The culmination of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections coincides with the seventh and final phase of polling today, marking the end of a monumental electoral process. According to the exit polls conducted by NEWSX, there is speculation that Narendra Modi could secure a third term as Prime Minister. The exit poll predictions by NewsX in collaboration with D-Dynamics indicate that the BJP is expected to secure 315 seats. The Congress is projected to win 57 seats, with an additional 3 seats from the UDF, bringing their total to 60 seats. The NDA, including its allies, is anticipated to win 371 seats, with 56 of those seats coming from allied parties. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, including its allies, is predicted to secure 125 seats, with 65 seats from allies. Additionally, other parties are expected to win 47 seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party received 37.36% of the vote, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 general election, and won 303 seats, further increasing its substantial majority In addition, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 353 seats. The BJP won 37.76% of the votes, while the NDA’s combined vote was 45% of the 603.7 million votes that were polled. The Indian National Congress won 52 seats, failing to get 10% of the seats needed to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition. In addition, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 91 seats, while other parties won 98 seats. Let’s have a look at how the 2024 predictions shape up:

Exit Poll 2024 North India

North India encompasses Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and the union territories of Delhi, Chandigarh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. Following this monumental electoral exercise, exit polls will soon provide insights, starting from the evening onwards. Today, the seventh and final phase witnesses 57 constituencies casting their votes.

The exit poll predictions by NewsX in collaboration with D-Dynamics suggest the following outcomes for various regions:

Jammu & Kashmir: BJP is expected to win 2 seats, JKNC 3 seats, while the INC is projected to win none. This results in the NDA securing 2 seats and the INDI 3 seats.

Ladakh: INC is predicted to win 1 seat, with BJP winning none. Thus, INDI secures 1 seat.

Punjab: BJP is projected to win 3 seats, INC 6 seats, AAP 3 seats, and others 2 seats. Consequently, the NDA is expected to secure 3 seats and INDI 9 seats.

Himachal Pradesh: BJP is predicted to win all 4 seats, with the INC winning none. Therefore, the NDA secures 4 seats, while INDI has no wins.

Uttarakhand: BJP is anticipated to win all 5 seats, with the INC not winning any. Hence, the NDA is expected to secure 5 seats and INDI none.

Haryana: BJP is projected to win 7 seats, INC 3 seats. Thus, the NDA secures 7 seats and INDI 3 seats.

Delhi: BJP is expected to win all 7 seats, with the INC winning none. This results in the NDA securing 7 seats and INDI none.

Uttar Pradesh: BJP is predicted to win 65 seats, INC 1 seat, SP 10 seats, RLD 2 seats, and ADS 2 seats, with BSP winning none. Consequently, the NDA is expected to secure 69 seats and INDI 11 seats.

 

In conclusion, the exit poll predictions by NewsX in collaboration with D-Dynamics suggest a significant victory for the BJP, with an expected 315 seats. The Congress, along with the UDF, is projected to secure 60 seats. The NDA, strengthened by its allies, is anticipated to achieve a substantial majority with 371 seats, while the I.N.D.I.A bloc, including its allies, is forecasted to win 125 seats. Other parties are expected to garner 47 seats. These predictions, if accurate, indicate a strong continued dominance for the BJP and its allies in the political landscape.

 

How Accurate Are the Exit Polls?

Relying solely on exit poll predictions is not recommended due to the potential for errors. In recent years, there have been multiple instances where exit polls have proven inaccurate. However, in both 2019 and 2014, while exit poll predictions captured the overall national sentiment, there were notable discrepancies.

In 2019, the average exit poll predicted the NDA would win 306 seats and the UPA 120 seats. These predictions were lower than the actual results, where the NDA secured 352 seats (with the BJP winning 303) and the UPA ended up with 93 seats (with the Congress winning 52).

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