Exit Polls Debacle: Wrong Again, This Time For J&K As Most Predicted Hung Assembly

Several exit polls on October 5 predicted a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. However, these predictions have again proven inaccurate after exit poll predictions for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 proved wrong.

Votes for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections were counted on Tuesday, October 8. The results for J&K showed National Conference winning 42 seats, Congress 6, and BJP 29. Most exit polls suggested a hung assembly in the Union Tertitory. Yet, the Election Commission’s results indicate a clear victory for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance.

To form a government in J&K, a political party requires 46 seats, with 90 assembly constituencies in total. NC-INC has comfortably crossed this majority mark and will be forming the government in the UT.

Off the mark

The Congress and NC contested the Jammu and Kashmir elections in alliance against the BJP. The Axis My India exit poll predicted the BJP could secure 24-34 seats (21% vote share), while the NC-Congress-CPIM alliance might claim 35-45 seats (38% vote share). It forecasted 4-6 seats (9% vote share) for Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This poll estimated NC’s seats at 24, Congress’ at 14, and CPIM at 0.5.

Meanwhile, Dainik Bhaskar projected the NC-Congress alliance at 35-40 seats and BJP at 20-25, suggesting independent candidates might surpass the PDP, which could obtain 4-7 seats. Republic-Gulistan predicted 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 for the BJP.

Gulistan also indicated independent candidates might take on a ‘kingmaker’ role with 19-23 seats, leaving the PDP with 5-7.

However, according to the Election Commission results, the Congress-NC has won the J&K Assembly elections with 49 seats. It is likely that there would be no hung assembly in J&K and NC led alliance would form the government, contrary to the exit poll predictions.

Jammu and Kashmir 2014 assembly elections exit polls

In 2014, during the last Assembly election held in Jammu and Kashmir, CVoter exit poll had predicted that no party would reach the 44-seat majority mark in the then 87-member Assembly. The exit poll had estimated that the PDP would lead with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP with 27-33, the NC with 8-14, and Congress with 4-10.

Eventually, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP secured 25, the NC 15, and Congress won 12 seats.

J&K Lok Sabha elections 2024 exit polls

Exit polls predicted a close battle between the BJP and the INDIA bloc. There are a total of five seats in Jammu and Kashmir, and one in Ladakh. Out of which the BJP was given 2-3 seats. The JKNC was predicted to win 2 and Congress 1. In these elections, NC won two seats in J&K, BJP won two, and AIP won one. National Confence backed independent candidate also won the Ladakh seat.

Read More: J&K Election Results: These Seats With Narrow Margins Help JKNC-Congress Cross Majority Mark