The global airline industry is set to achieve a net profit of $36.6 billion in 2025, marking a slight increase over 2024 figures, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The expected growth is driven by lower oil prices, tighter cost controls, and a strong recovery in passenger demand.
IATA’s annual forecast predicts that global passenger numbers will rise by 6.7% in 2025, reaching 5.2 billion travelers. The industry’s revenue is expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, totaling $1.007 trillion, up 4.4% from 2024.
Profit margins for the industry are projected to improve slightly to 3.6% in 2025, compared to 3.3% in 2024. Average net profit per passenger is expected to be $7, an increase from $6.4 in 2024 but below the 2023 peak of $7.9.
“Airlines will face significant challenges in 2025, but lower oil prices, strong demand, and cost management will help sustain profitability,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General. “Airlines must continue to maintain efficiency across the supply chain, especially with infrastructure providers.”
While demand for air travel continues to rebound post-pandemic, airlines are still grappling with supply chain disruptions, including delays in the delivery of new aircraft. This has led to longer maintenance periods for existing fleets and increased operational costs, especially for low-cost carriers.
In terms of regional performance, North America is expected to remain the largest profit contributor, although profit margins will be lower than pre-pandemic levels. The Middle East is set to record the strongest financial performance, driven by robust demand for premium long-haul travel.
The Asia Pacific region is expected to see slight improvements in profitability due to strong demand and higher load factors.
Jet fuel prices are expected to average $87 per barrel in 2025, down from $99 in 2024. Despite a 6% increase in fuel consumption, total fuel spending by airlines is projected to decline by 4.8%, to $248 billion. Fuel costs are expected to account for 26.4% of operating costs, down from 28.9% in 2024.
However, the outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which could impact oil prices and airline profitability.
IATA also highlighted the ongoing challenges faced by European airlines, including fleet groundings, rising wages, higher airport charges, and increased taxes, which have affected competitiveness. However, the association expects profitability to improve as low-cost carriers resume flying grounded aircraft in 2025.
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