Raebareli, Amethi and the Inherent Challenges for the Gandhi Siblings

The Congress party has strategically ended the suspense over the Amethi & Raebareli contest. In a calculated move, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to contest from his mother’s bastion of Raebareli, leaving Amethi behind. This marks his second seat after Wayanad in Kerala for the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

The Congress party has chosen Kishori Lal Sharma, a long-standing loyalist and close aide to Sonia Gandhi, to take on the B.J.P.’s Smriti Irani in Amethi.

The Congress party made these crucial decisions public on the morning of the last day to file nominations from the respective seats in Uttar Pradesh. Despite the last-minute announcement, it was clear that these decisions were part of the party’s well-thought-out and strategic move. But they raise more questions than they answer. Why did Rahul Gandhi choose Raebareli over Amethi? Why has Priyanka Gandhi decided not to contest the elections despite murmurs and anticipation around her political entry? What is the larger messaging and impact of this move?

The analysis of these questions will require us to establish the hard facts.

The History Of The Seats

Raebareli and, later, Aemthi have been bastions of the Congress since elections began in independent India. Since 2004, Raebareli has been Sonia Gandhi’s seat, and Amethi has been Rahul Gandhi’s. In the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Sonia and Rahul won their respective seats with a credible victory margin of over two and a half lakh votes. In 2009, the mother-son duo’s victory margin was just thirty thousand short of four lakhs.

In 2014, even as the B.J.P. swept the state of Uttar Pradesh in the general elections, Sonia and Rahul retained their respective seats.

This changed in the 2019 general elections. Ground surveys of Amethi indicated a loss to Congress, and that’s why Rahul Gandhi contested the second seat of Wayanad in Kerala, another comfortable bastion of the party. Congress’ fears came true when Rahul Gandhi lost to B.J.P.’s Smriti Irani in a dramatic turn of events by a margin of less than sixty thousand votes. The victory margin may not have been phenomenal, but a loss is a loss. At the same time, even though Sonia Gandhi retained her seat, her victory margin fell to a little over one lakh votes for the first time in fifteen years, which brings us to the present situation.

Sonia Gandhi has exited the Lok Sabha, opening up two bastions of the Gandhi family to contest elections. The Congress believes its decision to make Rahul Gandhi contest from Raebareli and KL Sharma from Amethi is a masterstroke, but to me, it’s a ball of contradictions.

Uttar Pradesh Contest Matters, Not The Seat

Congress says Rahul Gandhi is a seasoned politician who can win from Uttar Pradesh and Kerala. They believe their decision indicates the party’s stronghold across the nation. Congress has challenged Prime Minister Modi to contest from any seat beyond ‘north India.’

Congress doesn’t factor in the fact that the last time Rahul Gandhi contested two seats, the rumour was that he was losing one, which he eventually did. Bringing that narrative back, the B.J.P. says Rahul Gandhi is losing from Wayanad, and that’s the sole reason he’s chosen Raebareli as his second contest. Wayanad has been a Congress seat since the constituency’s inception in 2009. However, the C.P.I. has fielded Annie Raja against Rahul Gandhi this time. Despite being allies of the ‘I.N.D.I.A.’ bloc, the left has given a tough battle to Rahul Gandhi, which only helps the B.J.P. push the narrative against Rahul’s victory further.

‘Strategy’ to Defeat Smriti Irani Backfires

Congress believes that its Amethi decision killed two birds with one stone. The party says Smriti Irani’s only claim to fame is that she defeated Rahul Gandhi in Amethi. If Gandhi is not defeated this time, Irani can no longer ride on that wave. At the same time, a loyal worker of the Congress has been allowed to contest, which further shows that the party is not dynastic.

Once again, Congress has not factored in the counter-messaging of this move, which they have made public. In its want to bring down the opposing candidate, Congress has raised serious questions about its ability to take on a big fight. By taking on the battle in Amethi, Congress would send out a strong message- despite a loss, the party is committed to the people of Amethi, who have been loyal to both the Congress & the Gandhis. If the Congress wants to claim victory against Smriti Irani by saying she must win on ‘merit’ rather than piggybacking on the fame she received for defeating Rahul Gandhi, what about the same principles for the latter? If anything, the message sent by the Congress is one of giving up on the people of Amethi.

Yes, contesting from Amethi would have required Rahul Gandhi’s continuous effort for the past five years and would undoubtedly tie him down to a single constituency. Politically, it makes sense for the Congress’s star campaigner to keep his options flexible and have the time to move across India. Even if Rahul Gandhi was not a suitable candidate for Amethi this time, there was someone else—Priyanka Gandhi. But the party has other plans for her.

Priyanka is Congress’ Missed Opportunity

The plan has two aspects. Jairam Ramesh says Priyanka’s pan-India presence is needed and that she alone is enough to down the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi will contest both Wayanad and Raebareli. As he is confident of winning both seats, Rahul will give up Raebareli, and Priyanka Gandhi will win in the by-elections. The party can make whatever assessment it deems fit, but it makes little logical or political sense.

Since Rahul Gandhi is confident of winning both Wayanad & Raebareli, why not let Priyanka Gandhi contest the election from Amethi? In its game of chess, Congress forgets that politics is essentially a battle of perceptions.

Turning around the low victory margin in Amethi and making Priyanka Gandhi’s formal entry into politics are missed opportunities for the Congress. Several factors favoured the entry of Priyanka Gandhi into electoral politics, a highly anticipated move for a long time. Firstly, her announcement as the party’s candidate for Amethi would send a clear message of Gandhi’s loyalty to a people and a seat that has sent its family members to Parliament for decades. The B.J.P.’s claims that the Gandhi family is running away from Amethi would not stick. Secondly, political analysts believe Priyanka Gandhi stood a chance to defeat Smriti Irani. The low victory margin in Amethi could’ve possibly been reversed in Congress’s favor, especially by Priyanka. She has served as the party in charge of Uttar Pradesh, giving her background and ground credibility. It would make Amethi one of the most keenly observed battles of 2024.

That could be the problem to begin with. Could Priyanka’s entry into politics from Amethi outshine Rahul Gandhi? And if she did manage to win, would that raise questions on the credibility of Rahul Gandhi? The visuals of unity were kept intact during Rahul’s nomination filing procedure in Raebareli, with his mother and sister by his side. The message was clear: it’s Rahul’s moment to shine, and there is no hostility or insecurity between the Gandhi siblings. However, there is a clear apprehension that the B.J.P. would spin a narrative against Rahul if the Congress did field Priyanka from Amethi- that Rahul Gandhi is scared of the Amethi battle, so his sister is now fighting on his behalf.

But the ultimate truth is this—there was no win-win situation for Rahul Gandhi in this entire scenario. Today, the message is that Rahul Gandhi has quit Amethi and returned to Congress’s last comfortable seat in Uttar Pradesh. This is worse than Priyanka outshining Rahul. Smriti Irani’s battle against a fresh entrant like Priyanka Gandhi would give a whole new dimension to the current political cycle, and the Congress has been in desperate need of the same. The party has been on the backfoot ever since its promises of a caste census and wealth redistribution have been ‘distorted’ by the B.J.P. Congress is struggling to present a counter and effectively explain its plans.

While the current decisions of the Congress have given the party some respite from the negative messaging of the past two weeks, the Amethi-Raebareli decision was the golden opportunity to turn around the conversation. The party could, with confidence, claim it is ready to take on a fight in both Amethi & Raebareli and that it will only go down with an attempt to win. It would serve as the first action towards proving its claims of a ‘stronghold’ across India. Instead, the party again explains its grand ‘chess’ moves today.