Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan: How Much Would It Cost The US Economy?

If reelected, former President Donald Trump has pledged to expel millions of undocumented immigrants from the US.

Since the Republican National Convention, where supporters displayed “mass deportation now” signs, Trump and his team have presented various approaches to achieve this goal, leaving little doubt that it remains a priority. In July, former Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) chief Tom Homan warned undocumented immigrants that enforcement efforts would be broadly inclusive, urging them to “watch their backs.”

Trump’s advisor, Stephen Miller, has suggested this would be the “largest domestic deportation operation in US history,” indicating that the military could be involved. Vice presidential candidate JD Vance has stated that targeting criminal deportations would be the initial focus.

Experts indicate that any plan a future Trump administration might pursue would be complex and costly, with billions needed for implementation and significant economic impacts anticipated.

What would the total cost of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants in the US be?

A 2015 American Action Forum analysis co-authored by Collins estimated that arresting and removing all undocumented immigrants could cost at least $100 billion over 20 years. More recent estimates suggest even higher costs. The American Immigration Council found that deporting 1 million undocumented immigrants annually would exceed $960 billion over more than a decade. These estimates are based on an undocumented immigrant population of around 11 million, with the assumption that approximately 20% would leave voluntarily. However, a July Pew Research Center report indicated that the undocumented population has likely increased in the last two years.

In fiscal year 2023, the Department of Homeland Security allocated this amount for “soft-sided” temporary detention facilities along the border. Advisor Stephen Miller has proposed constructing large detention centers with a capacity to hold around 70,000 people, over 10 times the capacity of current facilities. He described this plan as surpassing previous national infrastructure projects.

3.7 million backlog cases

Operating a soft-sided shelter could cost as much as $40 million per month, according to former ICE chief of staff Jason Houser. For such a project to proceed, Congress would need to approve substantial additional funding — a difficult task, according to Sandweg, given the logistics and time required for staffing and construction that could span an entire presidential term.

This is the average time for a case to process through immigration court, according to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. Factors like court location affect this timeline, with an already overwhelming case backlog that has surged under the Biden administration. In January 2021, there were about 1.3 million cases in backlog; this number has now exceeded 3.7 million, potentially slowing down any intensified deportation efforts.

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