What’s Stopping Israel From Attacking Iran? Two Likely Reasons Behind The Delay

The delay in Israel’s planned attack on Iran has been attributed to two primary factors. First, Israel is reconsidering its strategy following warnings from Gulf Arab nations regarding the use of their airspace. This has led to adjustments in war planning, requiring Israeli jet fighters to take a longer route around the Arabian Gulf, which in turn necessitates extensive mid-air refueling.

Second, a potential retaliatory strike has been postponed due to leaks concerning the attack’s planning from the United States. Although no specific targets were disclosed, Israel is concerned that the leaked information may enable Iran to anticipate attack patterns. As a result, Israel has formulated an alternative plan but must conduct war games before moving forward.

Gulf states to support Israel

Iran has expressed concerns over what it perceives as a hesitance from Gulf states to support Israel. On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Tehran has received assurances from neighboring countries that they will not permit their territory or airspace to be used for any military actions against Iran, as the nation prepares for a possible Israeli response to its missile strikes.

Araghchi indicated that all neighboring nations have confirmed their commitment to not allowing their territory or airspace to be utilized against Iran.

Importance of gulf countries in Iran-Israel war

Recently, the Israeli Air Force displayed its F-35 aircraft refueling mid-air with KC-707 Boeing Tankers during a mission targeting the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen.

The fuel requirements for any bombing mission are influenced by the aircraft type and the weight and nature of the munitions being carried, in addition to the distance traveled.

Should Israel decide to conduct a strike on Iran over the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, it would necessitate four to five mid-air refueling operations.

Leak of classified U.S. intelligence on Israel response

Tensions in the Middle East have heightened as the region awaits Israel’s response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack earlier this month. This anticipation was exacerbated by the alleged leak of classified U.S. intelligence that purportedly outlines Israel’s preparations for retaliation, which is currently under investigation by the FBI.

The leaked documents, which surfaced on Telegram late last week, reportedly detail Israel’s plans for an attack involving two types of air-launched ballistic missiles known as Golden Horizon and Rocks. Defense experts told MEE that the Golden Horizon missiles belong to the Israeli-produced Sparrow family, which is believed to have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and has been used in previous strikes, including one against Iran’s S-300 air defense system in April.

The classified documents, which were marked as top secret, first emerged online on Friday via the Telegram messaging app, rapidly spreading among channels popular with Iranian users. On Tuesday, the FBI announced its investigation into the unauthorized release of these documents regarding Israel’s preparations for a potential retaliatory strike. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking to reporters in Rome, confirmed that there were no indications that any personnel from the Office of the Secretary of Defense were under investigation for the leak.

Iran bracing for a potential Israeli response

Iran is bracing for a potential Israeli response following its recent missile attack, which involved firing 200 ballistic missiles that sent many Israelis to bomb shelters on October 1, resulting in a Palestinian death in the West Bank and damage to residential areas and military bases. The Israeli Defense Forces claimed there was no operational impact from this attack.

Iran stated that its missile barrage was a reaction to strikes in Lebanon that resulted in the deaths of senior Hezbollah leaders, as well as a blast in Tehran that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. Israel has not acknowledged involvement in Haniyeh’s death.

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