How Would Trump’s Second Term Impact the Future of the Philippines?

The Philippines anticipates that US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region, especially regarding its treaty alliance with the Philippines, will remain consistent under Donald Trump’s administration. This expectation stems from Washington’s bipartisan resolve to maintain a strategic balance in the region, the Philippine ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, shared with Reuters on Thursday. Tensions in the South China Sea remain high, and both nations aim to support regional stability.

Bipartisan Support in the US for Countering China’s Influence

Ambassador Romualdez emphasized that both Democratic and Republican leaders in the US prioritize countering China’s influence, including in the contested South China Sea area. According to Romualdez, this bipartisan consensus ensures that military partnerships, economic relations, and security commitments with the Philippines will likely continue seamlessly under Trump’s leadership.

“It is in their interest that the Indo-Pacific region remains free, peaceful, and stable, especially given the economic part of it, with trillions of dollars passing through the South China Sea,” Romualdez told Reuters.

Philippines Expands Military Cooperation with the US

Under current leaders, President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., security cooperation between the US and the Philippines has deepened significantly. Both countries are aligned in their response to what they see as China’s aggressive actions near Taiwan and within the South China Sea.

Following Trump’s recent election victory, President Marcos expressed optimism about their alliance, stating, “I am hopeful that this unshakeable alliance, tested in war and peace, will be a force of good that will blaze a path of prosperity and amity in the region and on both sides of the Pacific.”

As part of this strengthened alliance, the Philippines has allowed US access to four additional military bases, increasing the total to nine, some strategically located near the South China Sea. The US has pledged $128 million for infrastructure upgrades at these bases and an additional $500 million to bolster the Philippine military and coast guard.

Minimal Canges Anticipated in Policy with Trump’s Return

Ambassador Romualdez expressed confidence that the commitments established under the Biden administration, including joint maritime exercises that began last year, would continue without disruption under Trump. He noted the strong bipartisan backing in the US Congress for these initiatives, which provides critical funding for defense and strategic projects in the Philippines.

“Every single one of our friends on the Republican side has expressed concern and strong support for what we’re doing to address the challenges posed by China,” Romualdez shared, adding that any potential policy shifts under Trump’s administration would likely be minor and could even enhance US-Philippine relations.