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Donald Trump once again defied the odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, securing a comeback victory after his previous win in 2016 against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. This time, he triumphed over Kamala Harris, marking the first time in over a century that a U.S. president, after serving non-consecutive terms, will return to office. As political analysts sift through the exit poll data, several trends emerge that shed light on how Trump reconnected with voters and ultimately clinched the election.
Trump Gains Ground with Minority Voters
Exit polls indicate that Trump succeeded in attracting more ethnic minority voters than in his previous campaigns. Reports leading up to the election had hinted at a possible shift, especially among Black voters. However, the most significant gains for Trump came from Latino voters, who now make up a notable 12% of the voting population. Data shows that Trump’s support among Latino voters rose from 28% in 2016 to 32% in 2020 and further to 46% in 2024. This shift suggests that the Republican ticket resonated with a broader spectrum of the electorate, challenging traditional Democratic dominance among minority groups.
55% of male voters supported Trump
Pre-election discussions had speculated that Harris would hold a solid lead among women, particularly due to the heightened focus on reproductive rights. The Trump campaign’s rhetoric on gender issues, highlighted by certain controversial remarks from his running mate J.D. Vance, also stirred conversations. Despite this, the gender gap played out differently than anticipated. Ultimately, 55% of male voters supported Trump, while 53% of women voted for Harris. The numbers were disappointing for Harris, who drew fewer female votes than Clinton did in 2016 and also saw a decline from Biden’s 57% support among women in 2020. Efforts to reverse the trend among white women—historically a strong demographic for Republicans—proved unsuccessful for Harris’s campaign.
Age-Based Voting Patterns: Younger Voters Drift Away To Trump
The longstanding belief that younger voters are more inclined toward left-leaning candidates encountered challenges in 2024. Although both Clinton and Biden had outperformed Trump among young voters in their elections, Harris’s support fell to 56% among voters aged 18-24, echoing Clinton’s numbers rather than Biden’s 60% in 2020. Conversely, Harris performed relatively well among older voters (65+), tying with Trump at 49%, surpassing her Democratic predecessors’ performance with this age group. These results suggest age-based political loyalties are nuanced and may reflect ongoing shifts in voter behavior rather than drastic new trends.
Racial and Gendered Voting Patterns: Breaking Down Assumptions
In-depth analysis of exit poll data shows that certain assumptions regarding race and gender as determinants of voting preference may be weakening. If these trends hold up under further analysis, they could suggest that racial minority groups and women are not as universally aligned with Democratic candidates as traditionally believed. This shift hints at a potentially healthier trend for democracy, where voting preferences become less predictably tied to identity categories and more reflective of individual policy priorities.
What the Future Holds: Is This a Long-Term Trend?
Although the election results and exit polls offer intriguing insights, it remains uncertain whether this election marks a long-term realignment or simply an anomaly in U.S. electoral history. The CNN exit poll, which surveyed over 22,900 voters, provides a snapshot of the electorate’s mood, but further analysis is required to understand the depth of these shifts. Regardless, Trump’s victory underscores that U.S. political dynamics are evolving, with shifts in traditional voter alignments shaping the landscape for future elections.
Read More: US Election Result Explained: Why Kamala Harris Lost?
