The U.S. foreign policy landscape may undergo significant shifts as Donald Trump has pledged to overhaul U.S. policy abroad and purge the “deep state” by dismissing thousands of government employees, including those within the diplomatic corps.
In anticipation of Trump’s return to office, the Biden administration is likely to expedite support for Ukraine, aiming to secure military aid before any potential cutbacks under a Trump administration. Biden’s team also seeks to bolster efforts to moderate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump’s approach may include extensive restructuring within the U.S. bureaucracy, particularly the State Department.
Will Trump discard Biden’s foreign policy framework?
Supporters of Trump’s “Trump 2.0” agenda claim he will be more organized if re-elected. U.S. media reported the day after the election that Brian Hook, a former State Department official known for his hawkish stance, would lead Trump’s transition efforts in the State Department. However, both analysts and current and former diplomats express uncertainty about the extent to which Trump will implement his rhetoric. It remains evident, though, that he aims to dismantle many of Biden’s foreign policies.
Diplomats noted skepticism about the transition’s effectiveness, suggesting the incoming team might quickly discard Biden’s foreign policy framework. In Trump’s previous term, some promises, like getting Mexico to fund a border wall or eliminating ISIS, did not fully materialize. Lack of clarity on Trump’s concrete proposals makes it difficult to predict the exact direction his administration will take.
Will Trump revive Schedule F?
A major priority, however, is likely to involve removing officials involved in shaping current U.S. foreign policy as part of a broader government purge. Trump has proposed reviving Schedule F, a classification that would strip certain federal employees of civil service protections, reclassifying them as political appointees and allowing Trump to more easily remove what he calls “rogue bureaucrats.”
Within the State Department, there are concerns that Trump might target specific bureaus focusing on issues he criticized during his campaign. Among these are the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) and the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. PRM, which assisted in resettling 125,000 refugees to the U.S. in 2022, could face severe budget cuts or even dissolution.
Project 2025
Project 2025, a policy blueprint by the conservative Heritage Foundation, suggests that Trump could repurpose PRM’s resources toward addressing domestic immigration challenges. Kiron Skinner, who led policy planning in Trump’s first administration, authored the memo and proposed freezing PRM activities for a reassessment of its previous policies. The memo also advised Trump’s transition team to review all State Department negotiations, funding, foreign assistance, and hiring decisions prior to his inauguration, with an immediate freeze on unratified treaties and other commitments after assuming office.
Some diplomats abroad are already bracing for potential disruptions, with some considering early departures before Trump’s arrival. Trump has also committed to reforming federal agencies, specifically targeting the national security and intelligence sectors to remove what he refers to as “corrupt actors.”
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