What Would Trump’s Return Mean For Abortion Rights In US

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the election, which saw abortion rights as a central issue, has left many questioning the future of abortion access in the United States. Trump’s inconsistent statements regarding abortion policies, coupled with ongoing political dynamics, have created uncertainty about the direction his administration will take in a second term.

Trump’s Shifting Position

Throughout his campaign and presidency, Trump’s stance on abortion has varied. During the final stages of his 2024 campaign, he suggested that states should have the authority to decide their own abortion laws. However, his position has fluctuated over time. In a March interview, Trump expressed support for a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, while as president, he endorsed a House bill that sought to impose a nationwide abortion ban after 20 weeks. Furthermore, during his 2016 campaign, Trump committed to appointing Supreme Court justices who could help overturn Roe v. Wade, a goal he successfully achieved during his first term. Trump has occasionally taken credit for this achievement, emphasizing its significance.

Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance has suggested that he would back a national law restricting abortion, though more recently, he aligned with Trump’s view of allowing states to make their own decisions regarding abortion policy. The Trump campaign did not provide a comment when asked for clarification on this matter.

Experts Weigh In on Possible Abortion Policy Paths

Due to Trump’s fluctuating stance on abortion, experts are uncertain about what the future holds for abortion policy under a second Trump administration. While a national abortion ban, if passed by Congress, could override state-level protections, including those in the seven states that voted to safeguard abortion rights, experts believe this scenario is unlikely. Four experts pointed out that Trump has expressed opposition to signing such a federal ban, although he has not commented on whether he would veto it if presented to him.

Instead, experts predict that efforts to restrict access to abortion pills—particularly those administered through telehealth or delivered by mail—are more likely to be a focus. Medication abortions made up 63% of all abortions in the U.S. last year, according to the Guttmacher Institute. Amy Friedrich-Karnik, director for federal policy at the Guttmacher Institute, emphasized that the administration’s focus will likely be on limiting access to medication abortion in the early months and years of Trump’s second term.

Public Support for Abortion Rights and the Political Landscape

The election results indicated continued public support for abortion rights, with ballot measures to protect abortion access passing in seven of ten states. Notably, in Arizona and Missouri, the victories overturned previous restrictions, while the other states where such measures passed had not previously restricted abortion. However, in Florida, a measure to protect abortion rights garnered 57% of the vote but failed to meet the 60% threshold required by state law. South Dakota and Nebraska saw voters reject proposed constitutional amendments aimed at protecting abortion rights, marking the first states to do so since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in 2022.

Given these results, as well as historical voter support for abortion rights, many Republican senators may hesitate to endorse a federal ban. Katie O’Connor, senior director of federal abortion policy at the National Women’s Law Center, pointed out that Republican politicians have distanced themselves from anti-abortion policies in recent years due to the increasing public favor for abortion access.

Despite this, several experts believe that other avenues for restricting abortion may be pursued without congressional action. These potential restrictions could shape the future of abortion access in the U.S., further complicating the political landscape surrounding this issue.

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