Donald Trump has once again emerged victorious in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, defeating Kamala Harris in a closely watched and highly contentious election. This marks his non-consecutive second term with the Republicans also regaining control of the Senate. However, the House remains undecided.
Election night brought several unexpected shifts, particularly among key demographics. Here are five major takeaways from this historic election.
1. Latino Voters Shift Toward Trump in Historic Numbers
One of the most significant developments of the election was a dramatic shift among Latino voters in favor of Trump. According to NBC News exit polls, Trump gained the support of 45% of Latino voters nationally, narrowing Harris’s lead to 53%—a far cry from the 33-point deficit Trump faced with Latinos in 2020, when he captured just 32% to Joe Biden’s 65%.
This 25-point swing marks one of the strongest GOP performances among Latinos since George W. Bush, who won 44% of the Latino vote in 2004. The Latino demographic, making up 12% of the electorate, had an outsized impact on results in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona. Trump’s gains were especially pronounced among Latino men, who supported him over Harris by a 10-point margin.
The shift among Latino voters presents a significant challenge for the Democratic Party. While some losses in this demographic were anticipated, the extent of the shift may prompt a deep reevaluation within the party regarding their approach to winning and retaining support among Latino communities.
2. Senate Democrats Struggle Against Tough Political Realities
Facing a challenging Senate map, Democrats had hoped that their experienced incumbents, bolstered by extensive campaign funding, could hold their seats in traditionally red-leaning states. However, Republicans managed to flip crucial seats in states like West Virginia and Ohio, giving them control of the Senate. Republicans also held firm in states like Texas, Florida, and Nebraska.
This shift in the Senate will significantly impact legislative priorities in the coming term. Republicans will play a key role in addressing major issues such as the expiring Trump tax cuts, Obamacare subsidy extensions, and the recurring need to raise the debt ceiling. With control over the Senate, Republicans are in a position to influence fiscal policies and shape budgetary decisions.
3. Harris Gains Among White Women and College-Educated Voters
As demographic shifts continue to redefine party bases, Harris saw notable support among white women and college-educated voters, marking a shift from previous Republican-leaning trends. NBC News exit polls indicate that while Trump won white women by an 11-point margin in 2020, Harris managed to narrow this gap to just 5 points.
Harris’s strongest showing was among white women with college degrees. While Biden won this group by 9 points in 2020, Harris expanded that margin to 20 points, solidifying Democratic gains among a key voting bloc traditionally considered more conservative. The education divide grew as well, with Harris making inroads among college-educated voters while Trump gained support among those without college degrees.
Additionally, the generational divide saw some convergence, as Trump improved his standing among young male voters under 30, winning 47% compared to Harris’s 49%. This dynamic highlights the evolving landscape in which both parties are adapting to shifts in voter alignment based on education and generational preferences.
4. Abortion Was Important but Not a Decisive Issue for Voters
While the issue of abortion played a role in energizing Harris’s base, it ultimately did not dominate the election cycle. NBC News exit polls show that voters ranked abortion as the third-most-important issue, with Harris winning those who prioritized it by a substantial 52-point margin. However, the economy and the state of democracy emerged as the top two concerns for the majority of voters.
Among those most concerned about the economy, Trump held a substantial advantage, winning by 40 points among the two-thirds of voters who rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor.” Voters prioritizing democracy supported Harris, but economic anxieties appeared to weigh heavily in favor of Trump, underscoring the lasting importance of bread-and-butter issues in voter decision-making.
5. Battle for House Control Likely to Extend Past Election Night
With the Senate decided and the presidency won by Trump, control of the House remains uncertain. The fight for the House majority is playing out in a different arena than the presidential and Senate races, largely in suburban and well-educated districts where Democrats traditionally perform well.
Blue states like New York may offer Democrats opportunities to gain seats, while California’s competitive districts have put Republicans on the defensive in several areas. Nevertheless, Democrats have lost ground in other regions, making the path to a House majority uncertain.
Control of the House will determine the balance of power in Washington and will be critical in shaping the legislative agenda for the next two years. Should Democrats manage to regain the House, they would hold a strong position to counterbalance Trump’s policies, whereas a Republican House would bolster Trump’s legislative ambitions.
A Divided Government with New Dynamics
As the dust settles on the 2024 election, the Republican takeover of the Senate and Trump’s return to the presidency signify substantial shifts in U.S. politics. The GOP’s inroads with Latino and working-class voters, alongside Harris’s support among college-educated demographics, reflect an electorate undergoing complex realignments.
With control of the House still undecided, the coming weeks will be pivotal for determining the ultimate balance of power in Washington. However, the confirmed results already set the stage for a divided government likely to face intense legislative battles over tax policy, health care, and the national budget.
The 2024 election has offered insights into an evolving American political landscape—one where traditional alignments are shifting and where both parties will need to adapt to meet the demands of a dynamic, diverse electorate.
