Immigration has emerged as a central issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, with leading candidates fiercely debating the impact of the U.S.-Mexico border situation on neighboring states and the broader country. Arizona, a border state, stands at the heart of this debate due to its geographic proximity, shifting demographics, and significant role in recent elections, positioning it as a key battleground state in the close race to the White House.
Why Arizona Is Crucial in the 2024 Election
Historically, a swing state is one where both Democratic and Republican candidates have nearly equal support, making it crucial to the outcome of presidential elections. While some states have held this status for decades, others, like Georgia, have only recently become competitive due to demographic changes and voter turnout dynamics. Arizona is part of the latter group. Traditionally a Republican-leaning state, it surprised many in 2020 when President Joe Biden won by around 10,000 votes, flipping it from red to blue.
In 2024, former President Donald Trump, who won Arizona’s primary in March and secured the GOP nomination in July, is determined to reclaim Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. This time, he faces Vice President Kamala Harris, who stepped in as the Democratic nominee following Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race soon after the Republican National Convention.
Arizona: Role as a Swing State
U.S. News recently designated Arizona as one of seven “toss-up” states for the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s shifting demographics. Although a traditional Republican stronghold, Arizona voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential race, with Biden’s narrow victory marking the first time a Democratic candidate won there since Bill Clinton in 1996. With 11 electoral votes, Arizona ranks among the top 15 states in electoral influence, and its track record as a bellwether—eight out of the last twelve presidential election winners also won Arizona—further heightens its importance.
Both parties have actively courted Arizona voters. Biden visited the state in March before ending his re-election bid, and in early August, Arizona was included in a campaign tour by Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Harris, seeking to strengthen her appeal to border-state voters, emphasized her experience prosecuting drug cartel members and criticized Trump’s approach to border security. She later visited Douglas, Arizona, calling for stricter asylum policies and prioritizing measures to prevent fentanyl from entering the country. After early in-person voting began on October 9, Walz visited Arizona, followed by Harris returning for a rally in Phoenix the next day. Former President Barack Obama also campaigned on behalf of Harris in Tucson on October 18. In the final stretch, Harris held another rally in Phoenix on October 31.
Voting History in Recent Presidential Elections
Trump’s campaign has similarly maintained a strong focus on Arizona. His super PAC emphasized Arizona’s economic struggles under “Bidenomics” in a fundraising email. After backing out of a fundraiser for the Arizona GOP due to a leaked recording implicating the state’s party chair in a bribery attempt, Trump resumed his focus on Arizona. He held his first rally in the state on June 6, where he criticized Biden’s immigration policies and endorsed Kari Lake for Senate. Trump returned for rallies in Tucson on September 12, Prescott Valley on October 13, and Tempe on October 24. He also planned to appear alongside conservative commentator Tucker Carlson in Glendale on October 31, with additional stops in New Mexico and Nevada scheduled for the same day.
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly ended the GOP’s Arizona winning streak, securing the state with a 0.3% margin. Previously, in 2016, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in Arizona by 3.5 percentage points, highlighting the state’s growing competitiveness in recent years.
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