President Joe Biden’s unexpected win in Georgia during the 2020 election marked the first time in nearly 30 years that a Democratic candidate carried the traditionally Republican-leaning Southern state. In the upcoming 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee following Biden’s withdrawal, aims to replicate this success against former President Donald Trump, as Georgia remains a critical swing state in a tightly contested race.
Why Georgia Is a Crucial Swing State in 2024
A swing state like Georgia is one where both Democratic and Republican candidates have relatively equal support, making it pivotal in deciding the outcome of presidential elections. While the same set of states tends to be classified as swing states each cycle, changes in demographics and voter turnout can introduce new states into this category. Georgia, for example, has only recently become competitive, having shifted into swing state status following Biden’s 2020 victory and other Democratic wins in lower-ticket races.
The Importance of Georgia in the Presidential Race
Georgia’s electoral history has seen shifts between Democratic and Republican preferences over the years. From the late 1800s through 1960, the state consistently supported Democratic candidates. However, beginning in 1964, the state voted Republican in nearly every presidential election, with only five exceptions, including Biden’s narrow victory in 2020.
With 16 electoral votes, the state ranks among the top 10 states in terms of electoral power. Although it is slightly less of a bellwether compared to other swing states, eight of the last 12 presidential candidates who won Georgia also won the presidency.
Recognizing its importance, Biden visited the state multiple times in 2024 before ending his re-election campaign. His debate performance in Atlanta on June 27 sparked doubts about his viability, particularly as Trump used the platform to make numerous unfounded claims. After taking over as the Democratic nominee, Harris held a rally in Atlanta on July 30, asserting her prosecutorial experience when criticizing Trump’s behavior. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, also held solo campaign events in the state on September 17. Harris returned on October 2 to speak on recovery efforts following Hurricane Helene, which severely impacted Georgia and nearby states. In a push for support from Black voters, Harris’ campaign announced a rally on October 24 in Georgia, featuring former President Barack Obama, rock star Bruce Springsteen, and media figure Tyler Perry.
Trump’s Campaign Efforts in Georgia
Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, also prioritized Georgia. They held a rally in Atlanta on August 3, during which Trump criticized Harris for the tragic February murder of a nursing student, Laken Riley. At a rally in Rome, in March, Trump further criticized Biden for softening his language regarding the individual accused of Riley’s murder. Trump returned to Georgia on September 30 to assess the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, later spreading misleading claims about the Biden administration’s recovery efforts. Additional rallies followed in Atlanta on October 15 and in Duluth on October 23, the latter organized by Turning Point Action and featuring prominent conservatives. Trump was set to return for another Atlanta rally on October 28, coinciding with his planned appearance at the National Faith Advisory Summit, part of his strategy to solidify support among religious voters.
Georgia’s Voting Patterns in Recent Presidential Elections
In 2020, Biden narrowly carried Georgia, winning by just over 11,000 votes, a margin that gained national attention. In the 2016 election, Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by a more substantial margin of about 5 percentage points.
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