2024 US Election Swing States: Why Is Michigan A Politically Important State?

On November 5, voters will decide the next U.S. president. Although every vote counts, outcomes in a few key swing states, like Michigan, will heavily influence the final result.

The Role of Swing States and Michigan’s Importance

A “swing state” is defined as a state where both Republican and Democratic candidates have strong, near-equal support, making it crucial to the election’s outcome. While the same set of states often remains competitive each election cycle, shifts can happen due to changing demographics, voter turnout, and other factors. For example, Michigan, once a reliably blue Midwestern state, became a battleground after Donald Trump narrowly won there in 2016. Joe Biden reclaimed it for the Democrats in 2020, winning by a wider margin.

Biden initially planned to defend the state in the 2024 election, but after unexpectedly exiting the race following the Republican National Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris took up the Democratic mantle. Michigan, holding 15 electoral votes, ranks among the top 10 in electoral influence, underscoring its critical role in the path to the White House.

Why Michigan is Vital in the Presidential Race

Despite Democratic victories in every presidential election except one since 1992, Michigan’s results often reflect national trends: the winner in the state has won the presidency in nine of the past 12 elections.

Biden highlighted Michigan’s importance to the Democratic “blue wall” — the coalition of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that helped him win in 2020 — with several visits before ending his campaign. Following her nomination, Harris made Michigan a priority, embarking on her first joint campaign stop with her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in early August. During a Detroit rally, Harris responded to pro-Palestine protesters, a gesture significant in Dearborn, home to one of the largest Arab American populations in the country. Following this, Harris secured the endorsement of Wayne County’s highest-ranking Arab American official, Assad Turfe. She returned to Michigan in September for a livestream event with Oprah Winfrey and again in October for multiple events, including an “audio town hall” with Charlamagne Tha God aimed at engaging Black men. Harris continued her campaign with a joint rally featuring Michelle Obama on October 26 and additional appearances focused on the economy scheduled for later in the month.

Trump’s Campaign Efforts in Michigan

Former President Trump, the GOP’s 2024 nominee, also actively campaigned in Michigan. In September 2023, he criticized Biden’s electric vehicle policies during an event with Detroit auto workers. Trump’s Michigan stops also included a May visit to Freeland, where he spoke about his legal battles. Following his official nomination in July, Trump returned to Grand Rapids with his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. Vance later made a solo appearance in Michigan, criticizing Walz as a “radical.”

Trump continued campaigning in Michigan with a town hall in Flint on September 17, followed by a speech at the Detroit Economic Club and a rally in the Muslim-majority city of Hamtramck, where the local Democratic mayor endorsed him. His October visits also included events in Detroit and Traverse City as he pursued support across Michigan.

In 2020, Biden won Michigan by close to three percentage points, while Trump had narrowly carried it in 2016.

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