Historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman, renowned for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, has confidently asserted that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious against Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Despite recent polling trends showing tightening races in battleground states, Lichtman stands by his prediction, made on September 5, during a recent YouTube broadcast.
Lichtman, a professor of modern history at American University, is known for his unique predictive model, which he bases on 13 historical keys rather than polling data. His only misprediction came in 2000, when he incorrectly forecast that Democrat Al Gore would win the presidency.
“Nothing has changed to alter my prediction,” Lichtman stated firmly, emphasizing that his approach remains steadfast even in the face of close polls. He has faced criticism for his predictions, notably from political analyst Nate Silver, who recently described Lichtman’s keys as “totally arbitrary.”
In his latest remarks, Lichtman criticized the media’s reliance on polling, asserting that the focus should be on governing, as it better reflects who might secure the presidency. He noted, “I don’t have a crystal ball… my system is based on history and is robust,” while acknowledging that unforeseen events could potentially disrupt historical patterns. Nevertheless, he remains confident that his prediction retains validity.
In a candid moment during a 90-minute live interview with his son, Sam, Lichtman expressed his deep concerns about the implications of this election for democracy itself. He admitted to feeling a heightened sense of anxiety this year, saying, “I have a flock of crows in my stomach,” underscoring the stakes of the upcoming election.
As the political landscape evolves, Lichtman’s predictions serve as a reminder of the intricate interplay between history, governance, and electoral outcomes. Whether his forecast will hold true remains to be seen, but his insights continue to provoke thought and discussion in the lead-up to Election Day.
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