A recent Franklin & Marshall poll reveals that former President Trump and Vice President Harris are nearly tied in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state. The survey, which was released on Thursday, indicates Trump is ahead by a slim margin of 1 percentage point among likely voters, with 50 percent supporting him compared to 49 percent for Harris.
Among registered voters, however, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, with 48 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent. This gap falls within the poll’s margin of error. Pollsters suggest that the difference may be attributed to the demographic makeup of likely voters, who tend to be more Republican, less moderate, and younger.
Race too close to predict
Berwood Yost, the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, explained that the race is essentially too close to predict, adding that it remains unclear who will emerge victorious.
The poll also highlights that Trump has an edge over Harris in terms of who voters believe is more equipped to handle the economy, with 48 percent backing Trump and 42 percent supporting Harris. Additionally, 45 percent of voters think Trump is better suited to be the commander in chief of the military, compared to 42 percent for Harris.
Trump leads on economic issues in Pennsylvania
Trump’s lead on economic issues, however, has shrunk compared to the previous poll in September, when he had an 11-point advantage over Harris, 50 percent to 39 percent. A similar trend was seen in August, where 51 percent of voters trusted Trump on the economy, compared to 39 percent for Harris.
Meanwhile, Harris outperforms Trump in other areas. She is favored by voters on who understands the concerns of ordinary Americans, leading 49 percent to 41 percent. On values issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, 51 percent of voters align with Harris, while 40 percent side with Trump. Harris also leads on questions of character, judgment, and trustworthiness, with 49 percent believing she has the right qualities for the presidency, compared to 39 percent for Trump. On honesty and trustworthiness, Harris leads 47 percent to Trump’s 36 percent, although her lead has decreased by 5 points since September.
Tight race for Pennsylvania
The poll, conducted from October 9 to 20, comes just under two weeks before the 2024 presidential election, which is expected to hinge on results in a small number of key states, including Pennsylvania. The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average for Pennsylvania also shows a tight race, with Trump leading by a narrow 0.2 percentage points, 48.5 percent to Harris’s 48.3 percent.
The survey interviewed 794 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 583 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is 4.3 percentage points, and 5 percentage points for likely voters.
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