A recent poll indicates a notable shift in the presidential race in Iowa, prompting discussions about the state’s status as a potential “swing state” once again.
According to the Des Moines Register Mediacom Iowa Poll, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has experienced a significant increase in support. This surge explains why many activists have felt more optimistic about their party’s prospects since she took over the candidacy from President Joe Biden, who ended his re-election campaign in July.
What poll says?
The poll, which surveyed 808 likely voters, reveals a seven-point shift from September. At that time, Trump led with 47% compared to Harris’s 43%. Now, Harris is in the lead with 47%, while Trump follows closely at 44%. The margin between the two candidates falls within the poll’s margin of error, which is +/- 3.4 points.
Women play a crucial role in Harris’s support, with the poll indicating that women registered as independents have shown a preference for her. She holds a significant 28-point advantage among these voters over Trump. Among older women aged 65 and above, her lead is even greater, at 35%. In contrast, older men favor Harris by two points, giving her an overall 20-point advantage with women compared to Trump.
In the realm of Iowa politics, Attorney General Brenna Bird discussed her frequent legal actions against the Biden administration, while 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus winner Pete Buttigieg shared his perspective on why he believes Harris would outperform Trump on economic matters.
Decline in Trump’s support in Iowa
The poll also highlights a decline in Trump’s support among men, dropping from a 27-point lead over Harris in the September Iowa Poll to a 14-point advantage in the latest survey.
If Harris maintains this heightened support through election day, it could enhance the Democratic Party’s prospects in other significant races, such as the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts and various legislative contests. Trump has previously secured victory in Iowa during the last two elections, defeating Hillary Clinton by nine points in 2016 and Joe Biden by eight points in 2020.
In contrast, Emerson College released a different poll among likely Iowa voters, showing Trump leading Harris 53% to 43%. Notably, this poll did not include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as a candidate option for respondents, despite his continued presence on the Iowa ballot after dropping out of the race in August and endorsing Trump.
