In his victory speech after the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump made a bold commitment to focus on ending ongoing conflicts around the world. While he did not specify which wars he intended to address first, geopolitical analysts are already speculating that his policies could prioritize Ukraine and Israel, two regions heavily impacted by international conflicts.
“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars,” Trump declared emphatically in his address, reiterating his “America First” stance on foreign policy that shaped much of his first term in office. He contrasted his administration’s approach with that of his political opponents, pointing to the relative peace that prevailed during his time in office, claiming, “We had no wars, for four years we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS,” a reference to his administration’s military efforts to dismantle the Islamic State.
Trump’s foreign policy has long been defined by skepticism toward foreign interventions and a desire to reduce US military involvement abroad. In his 2024 victory speech, the former president seemed determined to uphold that doctrine in his second term, particularly when it comes to regions like Ukraine, which has been embroiled in a brutal war with Russia since 2022.
Historic US-North Korea Diplomacy: A Defining Legacy of Trump’s First Term
One of the defining foreign policy moments of Trump’s first presidency was his direct engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. In a historic move that shocked many, Trump became the first sitting US president to meet with a leader of North Korea. In 2018, he traveled to Singapore for a summit that was initially met with skepticism, but ultimately signified a dramatic shift in US diplomacy towards the reclusive regime.
Trump’s face-to-face discussions with Kim were seen as a groundbreaking step, even as critics questioned the effectiveness of the talks in curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Nonetheless, the meeting showcased Trump’s willingness to break traditional diplomatic norms, a trait he has continued to emphasize throughout his career. While the results of his engagement with North Korea were mixed, the summit was a significant symbol of his unorthodox approach to global diplomacy.
Ukraine’s Growing Concerns About Trump’s Return
As the 2024 election results unfolded, Ukraine’s leaders, as well as many analysts in Kyiv, watched with mounting apprehension. Under Trump’s previous administration, the US played a pivotal role in supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression, providing billions in financial and military aid. However, Trump has repeatedly suggested that, if elected, he would not guarantee continued support for Ukraine, causing significant unease among the Ukrainian leadership.
Ukrainian officials fear that Trump’s victory could signal a reduction in American assistance, particularly as the country continues to fight Russian forces, which have intensified their offensive after more than a year of war. Ukraine, which has suffered devastating losses and is facing an increasingly entrenched Russian military, relies heavily on the support of Western nations—especially the US—for both military aid and economic support.
Trump has been outspoken in his criticism of the current US policy towards Ukraine, calling for an immediate ceasefire and suggesting that he could resolve the conflict “within 24 hours” if re-elected. However, many Ukrainian officials remain skeptical of his ability to bring peace to the region in such a short time. For Ukrainians, the prospect of a Trump presidency raises the fear that the US could distance itself from their cause, leaving them to face an increasingly formidable Russian opponent without the necessary support.
North Korea-Russia Alliance and Ukraine’s Strategic Fears
Adding to Ukraine’s concerns is the growing alliance between Russia and North Korea, a relationship that has become more prominent in recent months. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forging closer ties with Kim Jong Un, and reports suggest that North Korea has sent troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, further complicating the military situation on the ground. In the context of this alliance, a Trump administration’s approach to North Korea—based on engagement and diplomacy—could conflict with the ongoing US-led efforts to counter Russian aggression.
For Ukrainian officials, the possibility of Trump returning to the White House is worrying, as it could lead to a shift in US foreign policy that favors diplomatic negotiations with Russia and North Korea over continued support for Ukraine. The presence of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine is seen by many as a strategic alignment that could complicate any future peace efforts, especially if the US under Trump reduces its focus on the situation in Eastern Europe.
US Aid to Ukraine: The Risk of a Diminishing Support Base
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the US has been one of the most consistent backers of Kyiv, with Congress approving billions of dollars in military and financial assistance. This support has been crucial for Ukraine in sustaining its military capabilities and continuing to resist Russian advances. However, this support has begun to face increasing scrutiny both within the US and in Europe, where some politicians are questioning the sustainability of continued aid.
In recent months, the political landscape in the US has shifted, with rising concerns over inflation, the economy, and domestic priorities. As Trump has emphasized in his victory speech, his focus will be on ending wars and bringing American resources back home. While this may resonate with many voters who are weary of foreign entanglements, it also poses a threat to Ukraine, which fears that a reduced US commitment could tip the scales in favor of Russia.
The Risk of a Trump Presidency for US-Ukraine Relations
Former Ukrainian ambassador to the US, Oleg Shamshur, expressed his concerns about a Trump victory, stating, “A Trump victory would create grave risks. The situation would be alarming.” Ukraine’s reliance on US support has been a cornerstone of its strategy to counter Russian aggression, but with Trump’s repeated criticisms of the amount of aid flowing to Ukraine, the future of US-Ukraine relations remains uncertain.
Trump’s proposed shift in foreign policy could have significant implications not just for Ukraine, but for the broader geopolitical landscape. If he does follow through on his promise to disengage from ongoing conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, it could lead to a dramatic reorientation of US foreign policy priorities, potentially leaving Eastern Europe exposed to Russian influence without the same level of support from Washington that has been pivotal in the struggle against Russian expansionism.
What a Trump Presidency Means for Global Security
As the election results continue to unfold, the world is watching closely to see how Trump’s foreign policy will evolve in a second term. His focus on ending wars and reducing US military commitments abroad could fundamentally reshape US relationships with key allies, particularly Ukraine. The potential reduction in US support for Ukraine, coupled with the growing North Korea-Russia alliance, could have serious consequences for global security.
For Ukraine, the prospect of a Trump presidency is fraught with uncertainty. While Trump’s past achievements in diplomacy with North Korea may suggest a possible diplomatic approach to conflict resolution, many fear that his “America First” policies could come at the expense of international stability and compromise the continued defense of Ukrainian sovereignty. The coming months will likely see increasing pressure on the Biden administration and other NATO members to solidify their commitment to Ukraine as they await Trump’s next moves in the international arena.
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