In the final days before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in three recent national polls, though most data suggests a nearly tied race for the White House and tight contests across all seven battleground states, leaving the outcome highly uncertain.
Morning Consult weekly poll
In Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll, Harris leads Trump by three points, with a 50%-47% margin, compared to her four-point advantage of 50%-46% in the two previous surveys (margin of error 1 point). Similarly, an ABC/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows Harris ahead by four points, 51%-47%, up slightly from her 50%-48% lead in early October. Meanwhile, a CBS/YouGov poll published the same day reflects a slimmer lead, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%, a shift from her 51%-48% advantage in mid-October (ABC margin of error 2.5, CBS margin of error 2.6).
Emerson College poll updates on Harris lead
An Emerson College Polling survey from October 23-24 reported Saturday has the candidates tied at 49%, following a 49%-48% lead for Harris the previous week (margin of error 3). This is the first time since August that Emerson’s weekly poll did not show Harris in the lead.
A Times/Siena poll released Friday also places Kamala and Trump at 48% each among likely voters (margin of error 2.2). The Times notes that these results may not be favorable for Harris, as Democrats have typically won the popular vote in recent elections even when losing the White House. This poll marks a dip in support for Harris since early October, when she held a 49%-46% lead over Trump. In addition, at least three polls in the past week give Trump a slight advantage, while six others show Harris leading.
CNN/SSRS poll predicts decline for Harris
The latest CNN/SSRS poll released Friday shows the candidates evenly split at 47% (margin of error 3.1), a decline for Harris from her previous 48%-47% lead in September. After President Joe Biden exited the race, a CNN poll indicated Trump leading with 49% over Harris’s 46%.
Trump also holds a lead in several other polls among registered voters: he is ahead by two points, 48%-46%, in a CNBC poll from Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and leads by the same margin, 47%-45%, in a Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), reversing Harris’s previous 47%-45% lead in August.
HarrisX/Forbes poll
The HarrisX/Forbes poll published Wednesday indicates Trump leading Harris by two points, 51% to 49% among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 2.5), with a one-point lead at 49%-48% without leaners.
Despite these shifts, other polls still show Kamala in the lead. In a Monmouth University survey of 802 registered voters conducted from October 17-21 and released Wednesday, Harris is up by three points, 47%-44%, among those who “definitely” or “probably” plan to vote, with 4% selecting “other” and 5% undecided.
Economist/YouGov poll
Additionally, the Economist/YouGov poll from Wednesday shows Harris leading 49%-46% (margin of error 3), a slight one-point decrease from the previous survey taken October 12-15.
Since launching her campaign on July 21, Kamala has reversed Trump’s lead over Biden, though her advantage has narrowed slightly in recent months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
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