The U.S. presidential election on November 5 will feature a close contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. However, the final result may not be determined for several days after polls close.
As vote counts progress, one candidate might lead initially, only to have the other narrow the gap as more ballots are tallied.
The red mirage and blue shift
In 2020, several states experienced a “red mirage,” where Trump led on election night, later followed by a “blue shift” as Democrat Joe Biden overtook him. Trump leveraged this shift to support his baseless claims that the election was stolen, although no irregularities occurred. Democratic votes took longer to count because of their higher concentration in urban areas, where vote processing takes more time. Additionally, Democrats increasingly opted for mail voting, a method Trump criticized as unreliable. Mail ballots generally require longer processing than those cast in person on Election Day, though in 2024, Trump has both endorsed and critiqued early and mail-in voting.
Key battleground states, each with distinct ballot-handling rules, will be instrumental in determining the election outcome. Here’s a look at what to anticipate in each:
ARIZONA: Likely favoring Harris
Mail voting remains highly popular in Arizona, with nearly 90% of 2020 voters casting ballots early, mostly by mail. Officials can start processing and counting mail ballots as they arrive but cannot disclose results until an hour after polls close. Any mail ballots submitted on Election Day itself are processed only once polls have closed. In 2022, these “late early” votes accounted for one-fifth of Maricopa County’s ballots and took days to count. Initial election night results will mostly reflect early votes, likely favoring Harris, with Trump possibly gaining ground as Election Day votes are added. Late-arriving mail ballots may then shift the count back toward Harris in the days following.
GEORGIA
In Georgia, early in-person voting is widely utilized, with officials predicting 65-70% of ballots will be cast early. Absentee ballots, estimated to make up around 5% of votes, undergo processing—including signature verification—starting two weeks before Election Day, although counting doesn’t begin until Election Day itself. State law mandates that all early votes be reported by 8 p.m. ET on election night, with officials aiming to tally all votes, including those cast on Election Day, by midnight. Ballots from overseas and military voters postmarked by November 5 will be accepted for up to three days post-election, with over 21,000 such ballots requested. If the race is particularly close, these could be decisive.
MICHIGAN: Can show surprising resultd for Harris
Since 2020, Michigan has introduced early in-person voting and allows larger jurisdictions to start processing mail ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller areas can begin the day before. These changes aim to expedite results compared to 2020, when early counts favored Trump due to unprocessed mail ballots. Biden eventually took the lead as mail ballots, which leaned Democratic, were counted—a pattern that fueled Trump’s unfounded claims of fraud.
NEVADA: Can shift toward Harris
Nevada’s vote counting was notably slow in 2020, with the state not called for Biden until five days post-election. Since then, counties have been permitted to start processing and counting mail ballots on October 21, with in-person early votes tabulated beginning at 8 a.m. PT on Election Day. Nevada also allows late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by November 5 to be counted if received within four days. These ballots, historically favoring Democrats, could cause a shift toward Harris in the days following the election.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina election officials begin processing mail ballots before Election Day. Once polls close, early results will likely reflect mostly mail ballots and early in-person votes, with Election Day votes being counted throughout the evening. If the race is tight, the outcome may remain unresolved for up to ten days. Absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day, including those from overseas and military voters, are counted during a 10-day canvassing period. In 2020, North Carolina was not called for Trump until ten days post-election.
PENNSYLVANIA
As a pivotal battleground, Pennsylvania took four days in 2020 to determine a winner due to a significant backlog of mail ballots. The state does not allow processing or counting of mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, which could again delay the final result. With more Democrats voting by mail, early results based on in-person votes may initially show Trump leading, but that lead will likely narrow as mail ballots are counted. A new law this year requires counties to announce at midnight on election night how many mail ballots are outstanding, aimed at reducing misinformation.
WISCONSIN
Similar to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin does not allow processing or counting of mail ballots until the morning of Election Day, which may delay early vote results. Larger cities transport mail ballots to central locations for counting, leading to sizeable vote batches reported early the next morning. In 2020, Trump and allies falsely alleged fraud after Milwaukee reported a large batch of absentee ballots early in the morning, giving Biden his first lead in the state—a repeat pattern may occur in 2024 as urban Democratic mail ballots are processed later.
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