As the highly intense and unique campaign season nears its end, Election Day approaches with anticipation. The tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump promises further developments once the polls close on November 5.
Initial Exit Polls at 22:00 GMT/17:00 EST
The first batch of exit poll data will soon shed light on voter opinions and motivations, after months of speculation about the outcome. Unlike the UK, where exit polls project results, US polls provide insight into voter priorities and demographic trends, combining in-person election day interviews and telephone surveys across key battlegrounds.
Focus on Swing States
States like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will draw attention throughout the night, as these can swing toward either Republicans or Democrats. Winning in these areas is crucial for either candidate to secure the presidency.
Poll Closures and Counting at 00:00 GMT/19:00 EST
Polling stations in Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia will close, but results there are usually predictable. The focus will be on Georgia, the first swing state to report, which could signal the general direction of the race. Georgia narrowly went to Joe Biden in 2020 and was a focal point of Trump’s unfounded allegations regarding that election.
Electoral College Dynamics
Both Harris and Trump need 270 out of 538 electoral college votes to claim the presidency, with this number outweighing the popular vote’s importance. Poll closures in North Carolina and Ohio at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT) will bring more results, including updates from a governor’s race in North Carolina involving Josh Stein and Trump-backed Mark Robinson.
Media Projections Begin
Media outlets may begin “calling” states once a clear lead emerges that is insurmountable. These projections rely on models incorporating exit polls and official counts. For instance, the BBC and other networks obtain data from Edison Research for their models.
Crucial Pennsylvania Polls Close at 01:00 GMT/20:00 EST
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes and a history of tight margins, will be closely watched. The state’s Rust Belt location means counties like Erie and Northampton could be decisive. National demographic voting patterns are also expected around 20:30 EST (01:30 GMT).
Swing States in the Spotlight at 02:00 GMT/21:00 EST
Polls will close in more critical states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and later Nevada, with these battlegrounds key to determining the final outcome.
Last Polls Close at 23:00 EST/04:00 GMT
Voting concludes on the US mainland, with California’s closure historically marking the race’s end, but this year, a quick decision is unlikely. Increased postal voting in recent elections has led to longer counts, and early in-person results can be overturned by subsequent mail-in tallies.
Congressional and Local Races
Besides the presidency, all 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats are up for election, which will influence legislative dynamics. Voters in 10 states, including Arizona and Florida, will also decide on significant ballot measures concerning abortion, a hot-button issue in this cycle.
Late-Night Counting and Possible Delays
By 06:00 GMT (01:00 EST), the nation could still be waiting for clarity. Close contests and mail-in ballots could lead to a repeat of 2020’s drawn-out process or even mirror the 2000 election’s legal battles. Any disputes could extend the suspense for days or weeks beyond election night.
