As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, the eyes of the nation are on Nevada, a pivotal swing state where political dynamics have always been fiercely competitive. Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, has made a bold prediction that could have significant implications for the national race. In a recent piece, Ralston projects that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly edge out former President Donald Trump in Nevada, a state critical to both candidates’ chances of securing the White House.
A Predicted Victory in the Silver State
In his analysis published on Monday, Ralston suggested that Harris will claim 48.5% of the vote in Nevada, with Trump close behind at 48.2%. The razor-thin margin points to the unpredictable nature of Nevada’s voter base, especially among non-major-party voters, who are expected to play a decisive role. “The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state,” Ralston said, in comments later amplified by Mediaite. “They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate, and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada.”
Nonpartisan Voters Expected to Be Crucial
Ralston argues that Nevada’s nonpartisan voters will be instrumental in determining the outcome. According to him, these voters—who account for nearly a third of Nevada’s electorate—will ultimately favor Harris, despite the increasing parity between Democrats and Republicans in voter registration numbers.
Ralston elaborated on the dynamics shaping these voters’ inclinations. “Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration, the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party,” he stated. However, he countered this belief, suggesting that a significant portion of nonpartisan voters actually hold Democratic leanings. “There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote.”
Nevada’s Role in the 2024 Election
Nevada’s political landscape, marked by its close races and shifting voter demographics, is expected to be a key battleground in this election. With its history as a swing state, both Harris and Trump are eyeing Nevada as essential to their respective paths to victory. Recent polling data, including averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, reflect a close race, with Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 1.7 points. Trump currently stands at 49.2% support, while Harris trails with 47.5%.
Senator Cortez Masto Emphasizes Nevada’s Historic Tight Races
Nevada’s tight electoral contests are well known to local political figures, including Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D). In a recent interview with CBS News’ Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation, Cortez Masto highlighted the inherent competitiveness of Nevada’s political environment. “It’s a swing state,” she said, acknowledging the reality that races in Nevada “are always close. It’s always within the margin, and that’s why it is important you get out and talk to voters, and you don’t take anyone for granted.”
