Surprise Poll Lead In Iowa Boosts Kamala Harris

The election campaign has largely concentrated on seven key swing states, yet a prominent poll suggests that Iowa might also be competitive. A surprising poll from Iowa has introduced an additional battleground to the U.S. election map, as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie for every vote.

Harris holds a three-point lead in Iowa

According to the Des Moines Register poll, released on Saturday evening, Harris holds a three-point lead in Iowa, a state that last supported a Democratic presidential candidate when Barack Obama ran in 2012.

Though Iowa only contributes six Electoral College votes, a loss there would significantly challenge Trump’s path to the presidency, as he works to claim as many states as possible from Harris and the Democrats.

This poll, though an outlier, is especially significant due to its origin: Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based polling firm is highly regarded for accurately assessing this largely rural state over the years. Selzer’s final pre-election survey in Iowa indicates that Harris is leading Trump primarily due to her substantial support among college-educated white women, many of whom are reportedly discontented with the significant restrictions on abortion rights since Trump’s first presidency.

What is behind Iowa lead for Harris?

Iowa has implemented a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, a stage when many women may not yet be aware they are pregnant. Although the law permits exceptions for rape, incest, severe fetal abnormalities, or threats to the mother’s life, it remains deeply unpopular among a considerable number of typically disengaged female voters and swing voters who have previously supported Republicans.

The release of the Selzer poll quickly caught the attention of U.S. political media, prompting a swift response from the Trump campaign, which issued a press release contrasting these results with another poll indicating their candidate’s solid lead in Iowa.

Close race between Harris and Trump nationally

Nationally, polling shows a close race, with neither Harris nor Trump establishing a clear lead in the seven primary swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.

Meanwhile, record-breaking early voting numbers across several states have led some analysts to question whether current polling accurately reflects this year’s electorate. Additionally, some states that are typically secure have seen limited presidential polling since Harris assumed the Democratic campaign leadership from Joe Biden over the summer.

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