With more than 80 million Americans already casting their votes by Monday, early voting data is raising alarm bells for the Democratic Party, according to a confidential memo from the Trump campaign. While early voting typically favors Democrats, the campaign claims that this cycle may defy historical trends, pointing to a significant turnout deficit in key battleground states.
Early Voting: A Disappointing Trend for Democrats
As of this week, over 80 million registered voters had participated in early voting, and in some crucial swing states, more than 50% of eligible voters had already cast their ballots. While early voting has often been an advantage for Democrats in recent elections, the Trump campaign is warning that this time, the numbers tell a different story.
Tim Saler, the Trump campaign’s chief data consultant, argued in the memo that Democrats are facing a sharp decline in urban voter turnout, especially among female voters, while rural turnout is surging. This trend, Saler notes, could signal a significant shift in voter behavior—one that could favor Republicans on Election Day.
Battleground States Show Stark Trends
In states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—critical battlegrounds for the 2024 election—urban turnout is notably lower compared to 2020. For example:
- Arizona: Urban turnout is down by 385,000 votes, with female turnout off by more than 170,000. Meanwhile, rural turnout has increased by over 14,000 votes.
- Georgia: Urban turnout is down by nearly 154,000, while rural turnout has surged by over 171,000 votes.
- Michigan: Urban turnout is down by 322,000 votes, with female turnout off by over 204,000. Rural areas are up by 56,000 votes.
- North Carolina: Urban turnout is down by 175,000 votes, and female turnout is down by over 154,000, while rural turnout has increased by nearly 27,000 votes.
- Pennsylvania: Urban turnout is down by over 381,000 votes, and female turnout is down by nearly 451,000 votes.
- Wisconsin: Urban turnout is down by about 101,000 votes, and female turnout is off by 238,000 votes.
A Wake-Up Call for Democrats
While early voting has closed in most states, the focus now shifts to Election Day. Despite the lower-than-expected early turnout, Democratic strategists like former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina downplay the situation, claiming that voters will turn out on Election Day. However, the Trump campaign points to polls showing that President Trump holds a commanding 16-point lead among voters who plan to vote on Election Day.
Trump’s campaign argues that Democratic enthusiasm is lower than expected, particularly among urban voters and women—groups that have historically leaned Democratic. If these voters fail to turn out on Election Day, the Republicans may have an edge in several crucial states.
Is the “Blue Wave” Still Coming?
As Election Day nears, the Trump campaign remains confident, stressing that the momentum is in their favor. With strong rural turnout and a clear advantage among Election Day voters, they are hopeful that President Trump will secure a victory. According to campaign sources, if these trends hold, Trump could be swearing in as President in January, with a stronger base than ever before.
With both parties closely watching the data and strategizing for the final push, the outcome of the 2024 election will depend on whether Democrats can rally their base in the final hours—or whether Republicans can capitalize on the shifting trends seen in early voting.